Mike Derry holds an implied probability near 77% to win the September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw by-election as the United Conservative Party nominee, following his June nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean with 286 of 507 votes. The riding has been a consistent UCP stronghold, last held by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, who resigned her seat in May after stepping down from cabinet in December 2025. Premier Danielle Smith has endorsed Derry, a local business owner with oil-and-gas experience, while the NDP’s Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph trail at much lower probabilities amid limited visibility and the UCP’s structural advantages in suburban Calgary voter preferences. Nominations close August 27.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMike Derry 77%
Kyle Campbell 14%
John Roggeveen 4.8%
Kyle Joseph <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 14, 2026
Mike Derry
77%
Kyle Campbell
14%
John Roggeveen
5%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 77%
Kyle Campbell 14%
John Roggeveen 4.8%
Kyle Joseph <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 14, 2026
Mike Derry
$486 KL.
77%
Kyle Campbell
$214 KL.
14%
John Roggeveen
$136 KL.
5%
Kyle Joseph
$129 KL.
<1%
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds an implied probability near 77% to win the September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw by-election as the United Conservative Party nominee, following his June nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean with 286 of 507 votes. The riding has been a consistent UCP stronghold, last held by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, who resigned her seat in May after stepping down from cabinet in December 2025. Premier Danielle Smith has endorsed Derry, a local business owner with oil-and-gas experience, while the NDP’s Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph trail at much lower probabilities amid limited visibility and the UCP’s structural advantages in suburban Calgary voter preferences. Nominations close August 27.
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Khối lượng
$965Ngày kết thúc
Sep 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds an implied probability near 77% to win the September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw by-election as the United Conservative Party nominee, following his June nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean with 286 of 507 votes. The riding has been a consistent UCP stronghold, last held by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, who resigned her seat in May after stepping down from cabinet in December 2025. Premier Danielle Smith has endorsed Derry, a local business owner with oil-and-gas experience, while the NDP’s Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph trail at much lower probabilities amid limited visibility and the UCP’s structural advantages in suburban Calgary voter preferences. Nominations close August 27.
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Khối lượng
$965Ngày kết thúc
Sep 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds an implied probability near 77% to win the September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw by-election as the United Conservative Party nominee, following his June nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean with 286 of 507 votes. The riding has been a consistent UCP stronghold, last held by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, who resigned her seat in May after stepping down from cabinet in December 2025. Premier Danielle Smith has endorsed Derry, a local business owner with oil-and-gas experience, while the NDP’s Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph trail at much lower probabilities amid limited visibility and the UCP’s structural advantages in suburban Calgary voter preferences. Nominations close August 27.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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