Susan Lahey holds a commanding lead in the York—Simcoe by-election market due to the riding’s consistent Progressive Conservative dominance in recent provincial votes and her profile as the PC nominee. Appointed by party leader Doug Ford in June 2026, Lahey brings experience as an East Gwillimbury town councillor, small business owner, and long-time local resident. The September 3 by-election follows the resignation of former cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, with opposition candidates including Liberal Naomi Davison, Green Matt Pearce, and NDP’s Bobby Nikmard fielded against her. Limited recent polling or major campaign shifts have reinforced trader consensus on the PC hold. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout, or late-breaking local issues that erode the party’s traditional margin in this riding.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSusan Lahey 97.6%
Naomi Davison 1.9%
Matt Pearce <1%
Gerald Auger <1%
Susan Lahey
98%
Naomi Davison
2%
Matt Pearce
1%
Gerald Auger
1%
Bobby Nikmard
1%
David Ghobrial
1%
Sean Conroy
1%
Susan Lahey 97.6%
Naomi Davison 1.9%
Matt Pearce <1%
Gerald Auger <1%
Susan Lahey
98%
Naomi Davison
2%
Matt Pearce
1%
Gerald Auger
1%
Bobby Nikmard
1%
David Ghobrial
1%
Sean Conroy
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 5:47 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 York—Simcoe provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Susan Lahey holds a commanding lead in the York—Simcoe by-election market due to the riding’s consistent Progressive Conservative dominance in recent provincial votes and her profile as the PC nominee. Appointed by party leader Doug Ford in June 2026, Lahey brings experience as an East Gwillimbury town councillor, small business owner, and long-time local resident. The September 3 by-election follows the resignation of former cabinet minister Caroline Mulroney, with opposition candidates including Liberal Naomi Davison, Green Matt Pearce, and NDP’s Bobby Nikmard fielded against her. Limited recent polling or major campaign shifts have reinforced trader consensus on the PC hold. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unforeseen scandal, unusually high opposition turnout, or late-breaking local issues that erode the party’s traditional margin in this riding.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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