Traders see the 1.5–2.0 percent GDP growth range holding the highest market-implied odds at 42.4 percent because the U.S. economy posted a 2.0 percent annualized advance in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace amid surging business investment in AI-related equipment. The closely contested 34.5 percent odds on growth above 2.5 percent reflect ongoing debate over whether fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, resilient corporate capex, and moderating consumer outlays will sustain momentum or yield to headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices. Forecaster consensus for full-year 2026 currently clusters between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent, underscoring how upcoming second-quarter data and Federal Reserve communications could shift probabilities before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 19%
<0.5% 18.6%
>2.5% 16%
0.5–1.0% 12.5%
$28,267 KL.
$28,267 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
19%
0.5–1.0%
13%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
45%
2.0–2.5%
22%
>2.5%
38%
2.0–2.5% 19%
<0.5% 18.6%
>2.5% 16%
0.5–1.0% 12.5%
$28,267 KL.
$28,267 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,906 KL.
19%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 KL.
13%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 KL.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,534 KL.
45%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 KL.
22%
>2.5%
$4,088 KL.
38%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders see the 1.5–2.0 percent GDP growth range holding the highest market-implied odds at 42.4 percent because the U.S. economy posted a 2.0 percent annualized advance in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace amid surging business investment in AI-related equipment. The closely contested 34.5 percent odds on growth above 2.5 percent reflect ongoing debate over whether fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, resilient corporate capex, and moderating consumer outlays will sustain momentum or yield to headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices. Forecaster consensus for full-year 2026 currently clusters between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent, underscoring how upcoming second-quarter data and Federal Reserve communications could shift probabilities before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,267Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders see the 1.5–2.0 percent GDP growth range holding the highest market-implied odds at 42.4 percent because the U.S. economy posted a 2.0 percent annualized advance in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace amid surging business investment in AI-related equipment. The closely contested 34.5 percent odds on growth above 2.5 percent reflect ongoing debate over whether fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, resilient corporate capex, and moderating consumer outlays will sustain momentum or yield to headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices. Forecaster consensus for full-year 2026 currently clusters between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent, underscoring how upcoming second-quarter data and Federal Reserve communications could shift probabilities before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$28,267Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see the 1.5–2.0 percent GDP growth range holding the highest market-implied odds at 42.4 percent because the U.S. economy posted a 2.0 percent annualized advance in the first quarter of 2026, accelerating from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent pace amid surging business investment in AI-related equipment. The closely contested 34.5 percent odds on growth above 2.5 percent reflect ongoing debate over whether fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, resilient corporate capex, and moderating consumer outlays will sustain momentum or yield to headwinds from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices. Forecaster consensus for full-year 2026 currently clusters between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent, underscoring how upcoming second-quarter data and Federal Reserve communications could shift probabilities before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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