Forecast models from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting toward 39 °C (55 %) and 40 °C (33.5 %). A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and depleted soil moisture on the central plateau, promotes intense daytime radiative heating while light winds restrict vertical mixing and limit cooling. Ensemble spread remains narrow two days ahead, though minor timing shifts in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the peak by roughly one degree. This outlook exceeds the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C, reflecting the anomalous warmth captured in the latest guidance and driving trader consensus around these thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
39°C 59%
40°C 32%
38°C 9%
41°C 4%
MỚI
$22,418 KL.
MỚI
$22,418 KL.
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
1%
38°C
9%
39°C
59%
40°C
32%
41°C
4%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
40°C 32%
38°C 9%
41°C 4%
MỚI
$22,418 KL.
MỚI
$22,418 KL.
Aug 13, 2026
35°C or below
$1,360 KL.
<1%
36°C
$852 KL.
<1%
37°C
$846 KL.
1%
38°C
$2,505 KL.
9%
39°C
$2,841 KL.
59%
40°C
$9,986 KL.
32%
41°C
$1,588 KL.
4%
42°C
$763 KL.
1%
43°C
$540 KL.
<1%
44°C
$857 KL.
<1%
45°C or higher
$365 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting toward 39 °C (55 %) and 40 °C (33.5 %). A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and depleted soil moisture on the central plateau, promotes intense daytime radiative heating while light winds restrict vertical mixing and limit cooling. Ensemble spread remains narrow two days ahead, though minor timing shifts in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the peak by roughly one degree. This outlook exceeds the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C, reflecting the anomalous warmth captured in the latest guidance and driving trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$22,418Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting toward 39 °C (55 %) and 40 °C (33.5 %). A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and depleted soil moisture on the central plateau, promotes intense daytime radiative heating while light winds restrict vertical mixing and limit cooling. Ensemble spread remains narrow two days ahead, though minor timing shifts in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the peak by roughly one degree. This outlook exceeds the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C, reflecting the anomalous warmth captured in the latest guidance and driving trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$22,418Ngày kết thúc
Aug 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS converge on a Madrid maximum of 38–40 °C for August 13, underpinning the market’s heaviest weighting toward 39 °C (55 %) and 40 °C (33.5 %). A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, combined with clear skies and depleted soil moisture on the central plateau, promotes intense daytime radiative heating while light winds restrict vertical mixing and limit cooling. Ensemble spread remains narrow two days ahead, though minor timing shifts in a weak Atlantic trough could adjust the peak by roughly one degree. This outlook exceeds the August climatological mean of 32–33 °C, reflecting the anomalous warmth captured in the latest guidance and driving trader consensus around these thresholds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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