Recent model consensus from major forecasting centers points to a daily maximum near 29–30°C in Warsaw on August 16, driven by warm southerly advection ahead of an approaching Atlantic front and initially limited cloud cover. Afternoon convective showers, noted in several guidance runs, introduce downward uncertainty that caps the upper tail of probabilities and keeps 31°C+ outcomes below 10%. Ensemble spread remains modest but centers on the 28–30°C range, consistent with late-summer climatology where daytime highs average 23–25°C yet can exceed 30°C under favorable ridge conditions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 29°C and 30°C, reflecting both the most likely outcomes and the narrow window before resolution on official Polish meteorological observations.