Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 91%, reflecting IAEA and US intelligence assessments that Tehran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system despite a large enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 9,000 kg as of early 2026. Recent US intel from May 4 confirmed limited damage to the program from prior airstrikes, estimating about a year to produce bomb-grade material but no testing capability. Iran's May 12 threat to enrich to weapons-grade 90% amid faltering ceasefire talks remains rhetorical, with earthquakes sparking unverified speculation but contradicted by seismic analysis. Diplomatic pressures, IAEA noncompliance findings, and absent breakout signals sustain low odds, though escalation or NPT withdrawal could shift them.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$191,721 KL.
$191,721 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,721 KL.
$191,721 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 91%, reflecting IAEA and US intelligence assessments that Tehran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system despite a large enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 9,000 kg as of early 2026. Recent US intel from May 4 confirmed limited damage to the program from prior airstrikes, estimating about a year to produce bomb-grade material but no testing capability. Iran's May 12 threat to enrich to weapons-grade 90% amid faltering ceasefire talks remains rhetorical, with earthquakes sparking unverified speculation but contradicted by seismic analysis. Diplomatic pressures, IAEA noncompliance findings, and absent breakout signals sustain low odds, though escalation or NPT withdrawal could shift them.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$191,721Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 91%, reflecting IAEA and US intelligence assessments that Tehran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system despite a large enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 9,000 kg as of early 2026. Recent US intel from May 4 confirmed limited damage to the program from prior airstrikes, estimating about a year to produce bomb-grade material but no testing capability. Iran's May 12 threat to enrich to weapons-grade 90% amid faltering ceasefire talks remains rhetorical, with earthquakes sparking unverified speculation but contradicted by seismic analysis. Diplomatic pressures, IAEA noncompliance findings, and absent breakout signals sustain low odds, though escalation or NPT withdrawal could shift them.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$191,721Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 91%, reflecting IAEA and US intelligence assessments that Tehran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or explosive detonation system despite a large enriched uranium stockpile exceeding 9,000 kg as of early 2026. Recent US intel from May 4 confirmed limited damage to the program from prior airstrikes, estimating about a year to produce bomb-grade material but no testing capability. Iran's May 12 threat to enrich to weapons-grade 90% amid faltering ceasefire talks remains rhetorical, with earthquakes sparking unverified speculation but contradicted by seismic analysis. Diplomatic pressures, IAEA noncompliance findings, and absent breakout signals sustain low odds, though escalation or NPT withdrawal could shift them.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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