Israel’s airspace has been closed and reopened multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity, including around the Strait of Hormuz. Regulators such as EASA continue to flag elevated risks from potential direct strikes or proxy actions. Israeli officials have confirmed ongoing operations at Ben Gurion Airport with only brief interruptions during alerts. Trader probabilities for near-term closures reflect this pattern of short, conflict-driven disruptions rather than sustained shutdowns, with volatility tied to any escalation involving Iran or Hezbollah.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$27,127,059 KL.
Jul 15, 2026
August 31
3%
$27,127,059 KL.
August 31
$1,095,178 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has been closed and reopened multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity, including around the Strait of Hormuz. Regulators such as EASA continue to flag elevated risks from potential direct strikes or proxy actions. Israeli officials have confirmed ongoing operations at Ben Gurion Airport with only brief interruptions during alerts. Trader probabilities for near-term closures reflect this pattern of short, conflict-driven disruptions rather than sustained shutdowns, with volatility tied to any escalation involving Iran or Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Khối lượng
$27,127,059Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has been closed and reopened multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity, including around the Strait of Hormuz. Regulators such as EASA continue to flag elevated risks from potential direct strikes or proxy actions. Israeli officials have confirmed ongoing operations at Ben Gurion Airport with only brief interruptions during alerts. Trader probabilities for near-term closures reflect this pattern of short, conflict-driven disruptions rather than sustained shutdowns, with volatility tied to any escalation involving Iran or Hezbollah.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$27,127,059Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace has been closed and reopened multiple times between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following the breakdown of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and renewed regional military activity, including around the Strait of Hormuz. Regulators such as EASA continue to flag elevated risks from potential direct strikes or proxy actions. Israeli officials have confirmed ongoing operations at Ben Gurion Airport with only brief interruptions during alerts. Trader probabilities for near-term closures reflect this pattern of short, conflict-driven disruptions rather than sustained shutdowns, with volatility tied to any escalation involving Iran or Hezbollah.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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