Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight increased cloud cover and light rain associated with a weakening summer monsoon, driving the market's elevated 36% implied probability for a 17°C-or-below minimum on August 27. These conditions enhance radiative cooling overnight, potentially pushing lows toward 18–19°C—near or below late-August climatological norms of 20–22°C—while steering patterns limit daytime heating. Trader consensus remains split across the 20–21°C bins at roughly 30% each due to model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official Beijing stations. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Beijing on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 27?
17°C or below 61%
21°C 33%
20°C 30%
22°C 29%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 27, 2026
17°C or below
61%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
30%
21°C
33%
22°C
29%
23°C
25%
24°C
2%
25°C
11%
26°C
9%
27°C or higher
8%
17°C or below 61%
21°C 33%
20°C 30%
22°C 29%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 27, 2026
17°C or below
$135 KL.
61%
18°C
$0 KL.
25%
19°C
$0 KL.
25%
20°C
$0 KL.
30%
21°C
$0 KL.
33%
22°C
$0 KL.
29%
23°C
$0 KL.
25%
24°C
$0 KL.
2%
25°C
$5 KL.
11%
26°C
$5 KL.
9%
27°C or higher
$5 KL.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight increased cloud cover and light rain associated with a weakening summer monsoon, driving the market's elevated 36% implied probability for a 17°C-or-below minimum on August 27. These conditions enhance radiative cooling overnight, potentially pushing lows toward 18–19°C—near or below late-August climatological norms of 20–22°C—while steering patterns limit daytime heating. Trader consensus remains split across the 20–21°C bins at roughly 30% each due to model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official Beijing stations. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$150Ngày kết thúc
Aug 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight increased cloud cover and light rain associated with a weakening summer monsoon, driving the market's elevated 36% implied probability for a 17°C-or-below minimum on August 27. These conditions enhance radiative cooling overnight, potentially pushing lows toward 18–19°C—near or below late-August climatological norms of 20–22°C—while steering patterns limit daytime heating. Trader consensus remains split across the 20–21°C bins at roughly 30% each due to model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official Beijing stations. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$150Ngày kết thúc
Aug 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight increased cloud cover and light rain associated with a weakening summer monsoon, driving the market's elevated 36% implied probability for a 17°C-or-below minimum on August 27. These conditions enhance radiative cooling overnight, potentially pushing lows toward 18–19°C—near or below late-August climatological norms of 20–22°C—while steering patterns limit daytime heating. Trader consensus remains split across the 20–21°C bins at roughly 30% each due to model spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds, with resolution hinging on the precise overnight minimum recorded at official Beijing stations. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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