Forecast model divergence for Mexico City’s overnight minimum on September 4 is driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities, with 17 °C or higher and 7 °C or below both near 36–37 %. Official guidance from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles shows sensitivity to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that control radiational cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Clear, dry conditions favor stronger nocturnal temperature drops below typical September climatology, while increased humidity or urban heat retention could keep readings above 15 °C. Updated model runs and any late-day observations will likely sharpen resolution before the official minimum is recorded.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 4?
17°C or higher 74%
7°C or below 72%
8°C 49%
9°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
72%
8°C
49%
9°C
49%
10°C
18%
11°C
32%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
49%
15°C
27%
16°C
49%
17°C or higher
74%
17°C or higher 74%
7°C or below 72%
8°C 49%
9°C 49%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 KL.
72%
8°C
$0 KL.
49%
9°C
$0 KL.
49%
10°C
$0 KL.
18%
11°C
$0 KL.
32%
12°C
$0 KL.
27%
13°C
$0 KL.
27%
14°C
$0 KL.
49%
15°C
$0 KL.
27%
16°C
$0 KL.
49%
17°C or higher
$0 KL.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model divergence for Mexico City’s overnight minimum on September 4 is driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities, with 17 °C or higher and 7 °C or below both near 36–37 %. Official guidance from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles shows sensitivity to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that control radiational cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Clear, dry conditions favor stronger nocturnal temperature drops below typical September climatology, while increased humidity or urban heat retention could keep readings above 15 °C. Updated model runs and any late-day observations will likely sharpen resolution before the official minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model divergence for Mexico City’s overnight minimum on September 4 is driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities, with 17 °C or higher and 7 °C or below both near 36–37 %. Official guidance from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles shows sensitivity to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that control radiational cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Clear, dry conditions favor stronger nocturnal temperature drops below typical September climatology, while increased humidity or urban heat retention could keep readings above 15 °C. Updated model runs and any late-day observations will likely sharpen resolution before the official minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 8:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model divergence for Mexico City’s overnight minimum on September 4 is driving the tight spread in trader-implied probabilities, with 17 °C or higher and 7 °C or below both near 36–37 %. Official guidance from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles shows sensitivity to cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light wind regimes that control radiational cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Clear, dry conditions favor stronger nocturnal temperature drops below typical September climatology, while increased humidity or urban heat retention could keep readings above 15 °C. Updated model runs and any late-day observations will likely sharpen resolution before the official minimum is recorded.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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