**Persistent onshore flow and widespread cloud cover with showers are the main drivers capping NYC highs on September 2, 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins (each at 30.5% implied probability).** Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and YR.no shows a humid air mass with southeast to east winds of 5–10 mph, extensive cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, limiting daytime maxima to the mid- or upper 70s rather than the low 80s that would occur under clearer skies. Model consensus points to peak temperatures occurring midday or early afternoon before additional cloud build-up or rain, producing the narrow range that splits trader bets almost evenly. Longer-range seasonal outlooks had hinted at near-normal early-September warmth, but the latest updates emphasize the moderating marine influence and precipitation, explaining why lower bins (72–73°F at 21%) retain meaningful probability while anything above 80°F remains under 4%. Updated NWS or NOAA model runs on September 1–2 will be the key catalyst for any further market movement before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in NYC on September 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 2?
74-75°F 31%
76-77°F 31%
72-73°F 23%
78-79°F 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
2%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
31%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 31%
76-77°F 31%
72-73°F 23%
78-79°F 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
$80 KL.
2%
70-71°F
$83 KL.
5%
72-73°F
$50 KL.
21%
74-75°F
$26 KL.
31%
76-77°F
$90 KL.
31%
78-79°F
$55 KL.
11%
80-81°F
$75 KL.
4%
82-83°F
$33 KL.
4%
84-85°F
$149 KL.
1%
86-87°F
$336 KL.
<1%
88°F or higher
$314 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent onshore flow and widespread cloud cover with showers are the main drivers capping NYC highs on September 2, 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins (each at 30.5% implied probability).**
Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and YR.no shows a humid air mass with southeast to east winds of 5–10 mph, extensive cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, limiting daytime maxima to the mid- or upper 70s rather than the low 80s that would occur under clearer skies. Model consensus points to peak temperatures occurring midday or early afternoon before additional cloud build-up or rain, producing the narrow range that splits trader bets almost evenly.
Longer-range seasonal outlooks had hinted at near-normal early-September warmth, but the latest updates emphasize the moderating marine influence and precipitation, explaining why lower bins (72–73°F at 21%) retain meaningful probability while anything above 80°F remains under 4%. Updated NWS or NOAA model runs on September 1–2 will be the key catalyst for any further market movement before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,291Ngày kết thúc
Sep 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent onshore flow and widespread cloud cover with showers are the main drivers capping NYC highs on September 2, 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins (each at 30.5% implied probability).**
Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and YR.no shows a humid air mass with southeast to east winds of 5–10 mph, extensive cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, limiting daytime maxima to the mid- or upper 70s rather than the low 80s that would occur under clearer skies. Model consensus points to peak temperatures occurring midday or early afternoon before additional cloud build-up or rain, producing the narrow range that splits trader bets almost evenly.
Longer-range seasonal outlooks had hinted at near-normal early-September warmth, but the latest updates emphasize the moderating marine influence and precipitation, explaining why lower bins (72–73°F at 21%) retain meaningful probability while anything above 80°F remains under 4%. Updated NWS or NOAA model runs on September 1–2 will be the key catalyst for any further market movement before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,291Ngày kết thúc
Sep 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent onshore flow and widespread cloud cover with showers are the main drivers capping NYC highs on September 2, 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between the 74–75°F and 76–77°F bins (each at 30.5% implied probability).** Short-range guidance from sources such as WeatherBug and YR.no shows a humid air mass with southeast to east winds of 5–10 mph, extensive cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms. These conditions reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, limiting daytime maxima to the mid- or upper 70s rather than the low 80s that would occur under clearer skies. Model consensus points to peak temperatures occurring midday or early afternoon before additional cloud build-up or rain, producing the narrow range that splits trader bets almost evenly. Longer-range seasonal outlooks had hinted at near-normal early-September warmth, but the latest updates emphasize the moderating marine influence and precipitation, explaining why lower bins (72–73°F at 21%) retain meaningful probability while anything above 80°F remains under 4%. Updated NWS or NOAA model runs on September 1–2 will be the key catalyst for any further market movement before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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