**Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in the Southern District of New York on multiple felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent transfer to U.S. custody.** Both Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have pleaded not guilty, with defense counsel signaling plans to seek dismissal on head-of-state immunity grounds and challenges tied to the circumstances of his apprehension. The case remains in pretrial proceedings as of mid-August 2026, with no verdict expected until well after the scheduled start date. Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to “No” on a full conviction across all counts, reflecting the substantial procedural and substantive hurdles—including potential immunity rulings, evidentiary disputes, and the possibility of partial acquittals, plea resolutions, or protracted appeals—before any jury could return guilty verdicts on every charge. The market resolves December 31, 2027, providing a window that encompasses the trial but also accounts for post-trial motions.