Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, yet the tightly bunched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether xAI will hit that window or slip further. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training in August and has since undergone supplemental fine-tuning on proprietary SpaceX data, a step intended to boost real-world engineering performance beyond Grok 4.6’s August 12 release. Historical patterns show xAI iterating quickly but often adjusting public timelines by days or weeks as final testing, safety reviews, and infrastructure scaling conclude. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on X, confirmation of API availability, or official model-card publication; traders are watching these signals closely because even small delays could shift volume toward later September dates or the slim chance of no release by month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 30 36%
September 17 31%
September 20 30%
September 21 30%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
18%
September 10
29%
September 11
19%
September 12
18%
September 13
14%
September 14
19%
September 15
35%
September 16
22%
September 17
31%
September 18
26%
September 19
21%
September 20
30%
September 21
30%
September 22
29%
September 23
30%
September 24
30%
September 25
16%
September 26
18%
September 27
18%
September 28
20%
September 29
28%
September 30
36%
No release by September 30
16%
September 30 36%
September 17 31%
September 20 30%
September 21 30%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$42 KL.
18%
September 10
$9 KL.
29%
September 11
$9 KL.
19%
September 12
$335 KL.
18%
September 13
$101 KL.
14%
September 14
$9 KL.
19%
September 15
$51 KL.
35%
September 16
$9 KL.
22%
September 17
$9 KL.
31%
September 18
$9 KL.
26%
September 19
$9 KL.
21%
September 20
$9 KL.
30%
September 21
$9 KL.
30%
September 22
$9 KL.
29%
September 23
$9 KL.
30%
September 24
$9 KL.
30%
September 25
$9 KL.
16%
September 26
$9 KL.
18%
September 27
$9 KL.
18%
September 28
$9 KL.
20%
September 29
$9 KL.
28%
September 30
$9 KL.
36%
No release by September 30
$9 KL.
16%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, yet the tightly bunched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether xAI will hit that window or slip further. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training in August and has since undergone supplemental fine-tuning on proprietary SpaceX data, a step intended to boost real-world engineering performance beyond Grok 4.6’s August 12 release. Historical patterns show xAI iterating quickly but often adjusting public timelines by days or weeks as final testing, safety reviews, and infrastructure scaling conclude. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on X, confirmation of API availability, or official model-card publication; traders are watching these signals closely because even small delays could shift volume toward later September dates or the slim chance of no release by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$699Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, yet the tightly bunched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether xAI will hit that window or slip further. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training in August and has since undergone supplemental fine-tuning on proprietary SpaceX data, a step intended to boost real-world engineering performance beyond Grok 4.6’s August 12 release. Historical patterns show xAI iterating quickly but often adjusting public timelines by days or weeks as final testing, safety reviews, and infrastructure scaling conclude. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on X, confirmation of API availability, or official model-card publication; traders are watching these signals closely because even small delays could shift volume toward later September dates or the slim chance of no release by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$699Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would arrive in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, yet the tightly bunched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether xAI will hit that window or slip further. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training in August and has since undergone supplemental fine-tuning on proprietary SpaceX data, a step intended to boost real-world engineering performance beyond Grok 4.6’s August 12 release. Historical patterns show xAI iterating quickly but often adjusting public timelines by days or weeks as final testing, safety reviews, and infrastructure scaling conclude. Key near-term catalysts include any new Musk updates on X, confirmation of API availability, or official model-card publication; traders are watching these signals closely because even small delays could shift volume toward later September dates or the slim chance of no release by month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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