Recent polls place Labour and National within a few points of each other in the high 20s to low 30s, with both parties near multi-decade lows as support fragments toward the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and the Opportunity Party. This distribution keeps the projected popular-vote gap narrow, reflected in the market’s near-even pricing on 0–5 percent margins for either side. A hung parliament remains possible on current seat projections. Late-campaign polling swings, economic releases, minor-party threshold performance, or turnout differences among key voter blocs could widen the margin before the November 7 election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
National 0-5% 29%
Labour 0-5% 26%
Labour 10-15% 14%
Labour 5-10% 11%
$20,119 KL.
$20,119 KL.
Nov 6, 2026
Labour 15%+
9%
Labour 10-15%
14%
Labour 5-10%
11%
Labour 0-5%
21%
National 0-5%
21%
National 5-10%
3%
National 10%+
4%
Another Party Wins
1%
National 0-5% 29%
Labour 0-5% 26%
Labour 10-15% 14%
Labour 5-10% 11%
$20,119 KL.
$20,119 KL.
Nov 6, 2026
Labour 15%+
$725 KL.
9%
Labour 10-15%
$5,700 KL.
14%
Labour 5-10%
$770 KL.
11%
Labour 0-5%
$1,475 KL.
21%
National 0-5%
$2,640 KL.
21%
National 5-10%
$938 KL.
3%
National 10%+
$7,467 KL.
4%
Another Party Wins
$405 KL.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polls place Labour and National within a few points of each other in the high 20s to low 30s, with both parties near multi-decade lows as support fragments toward the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and the Opportunity Party. This distribution keeps the projected popular-vote gap narrow, reflected in the market’s near-even pricing on 0–5 percent margins for either side. A hung parliament remains possible on current seat projections. Late-campaign polling swings, economic releases, minor-party threshold performance, or turnout differences among key voter blocs could widen the margin before the November 7 election.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,119Ngày kết thúc
Nov 7, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polls place Labour and National within a few points of each other in the high 20s to low 30s, with both parties near multi-decade lows as support fragments toward the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and the Opportunity Party. This distribution keeps the projected popular-vote gap narrow, reflected in the market’s near-even pricing on 0–5 percent margins for either side. A hung parliament remains possible on current seat projections. Late-campaign polling swings, economic releases, minor-party threshold performance, or turnout differences among key voter blocs could widen the margin before the November 7 election.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Khối lượng
$20,119Ngày kết thúc
Nov 7, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place Labour and National within a few points of each other in the high 20s to low 30s, with both parties near multi-decade lows as support fragments toward the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, and the Opportunity Party. This distribution keeps the projected popular-vote gap narrow, reflected in the market’s near-even pricing on 0–5 percent margins for either side. A hung parliament remains possible on current seat projections. Late-campaign polling swings, economic releases, minor-party threshold performance, or turnout differences among key voter blocs could widen the margin before the November 7 election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
56%
Labour
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
51%
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