Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 86% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's recent debut atop the rankings around May 8, with multiple Claude variants dominating the top five via superior reasoning and agentic coding performance. Released April 16, this frontier large language model extended Anthropic's lead after Claude 4.6's earlier sweep, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #4 (12.5% odds) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 at #8 despite its April 23 launch. Key catalysts ahead include Google I/O on May 19 for potential Gemini upgrades, though Anthropic's momentum and crowd-sourced Elo stability suggest resilience absent major surprises.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 86%
Google 13%
OpenAI 1.6%
Meta <1%
$385,378 KL.
$385,378 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
13%
OpenAI
2%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 13%
OpenAI 1.6%
Meta <1%
$385,378 KL.
$385,378 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$40,236 KL.
86%
$32,049 KL.
13%
OpenAI
$24,444 KL.
2%
Meta
$24,806 KL.
<1%
xAI
$22,978 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$24,537 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$35,402 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$20,612 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$33,758 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$15,754 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$18,572 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$22,660 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$18,254 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$27,297 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$24,018 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 86% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's recent debut atop the rankings around May 8, with multiple Claude variants dominating the top five via superior reasoning and agentic coding performance. Released April 16, this frontier large language model extended Anthropic's lead after Claude 4.6's earlier sweep, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #4 (12.5% odds) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 at #8 despite its April 23 launch. Key catalysts ahead include Google I/O on May 19 for potential Gemini upgrades, though Anthropic's momentum and crowd-sourced Elo stability suggest resilience absent major surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$385,378Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 86% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's recent debut atop the rankings around May 8, with multiple Claude variants dominating the top five via superior reasoning and agentic coding performance. Released April 16, this frontier large language model extended Anthropic's lead after Claude 4.6's earlier sweep, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #4 (12.5% odds) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 at #8 despite its April 23 launch. Key catalysts ahead include Google I/O on May 19 for potential Gemini upgrades, though Anthropic's momentum and crowd-sourced Elo stability suggest resilience absent major surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$385,378Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 86% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking's recent debut atop the rankings around May 8, with multiple Claude variants dominating the top five via superior reasoning and agentic coding performance. Released April 16, this frontier large language model extended Anthropic's lead after Claude 4.6's earlier sweep, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at #4 (12.5% odds) and OpenAI's GPT-5.5 at #8 despite its April 23 launch. Key catalysts ahead include Google I/O on May 19 for potential Gemini upgrades, though Anthropic's momentum and crowd-sourced Elo stability suggest resilience absent major surprises.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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