Trader consensus reflects a 98.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of May 14, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming daily on May 15. Historical records since 1851 show only about a dozen pre-June 1 hurricanes amid typically unfavorable May conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key development regions, pervasive dry Saharan air, and strong vertical wind shear inhibiting organization. Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under weak La Niña influences that favor June onward. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying over anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico waters, though current model consensus shows low risk through month's end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$48,839 KL.
$48,839 KL.
May 31, 2026
$48,839 KL.
$48,839 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus reflects a 98.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of May 14, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming daily on May 15. Historical records since 1851 show only about a dozen pre-June 1 hurricanes amid typically unfavorable May conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key development regions, pervasive dry Saharan air, and strong vertical wind shear inhibiting organization. Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under weak La Niña influences that favor June onward. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying over anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico waters, though current model consensus shows low risk through month's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Thị trường mở: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$48,839Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus reflects a 98.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of May 14, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming daily on May 15. Historical records since 1851 show only about a dozen pre-June 1 hurricanes amid typically unfavorable May conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key development regions, pervasive dry Saharan air, and strong vertical wind shear inhibiting organization. Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under weak La Niña influences that favor June onward. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying over anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico waters, though current model consensus shows low risk through month's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Khối lượng
$48,839Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 98.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) confirmation of zero active tropical cyclones or disturbances as of May 14, with routine Tropical Weather Outlooks resuming daily on May 15. Historical records since 1851 show only about a dozen pre-June 1 hurricanes amid typically unfavorable May conditions—cooler sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C in key development regions, pervasive dry Saharan air, and strong vertical wind shear inhibiting organization. Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal 2026 activity under weak La Niña influences that favor June onward. A realistic upset would require an unforeseen tropical wave rapidly intensifying over anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico waters, though current model consensus shows low risk through month's end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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