With the Eastern Pacific hurricane season at peak intensity in mid-August, persistently warm sea surface temperatures above 26°C and low vertical wind shear have created highly favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows active disturbances with elevated formation probabilities in the next 48 hours, aligning with the 95.5% market-implied odds for a named storm in the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14. Ensemble model consensus reinforces this outlook, though minor realistic risks such as an abrupt increase in shear or a shift in steering currents could still prevent development within the tight timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
96% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 15, 2026
96% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.With the Eastern Pacific hurricane season at peak intensity in mid-August, persistently warm sea surface temperatures above 26°C and low vertical wind shear have created highly favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows active disturbances with elevated formation probabilities in the next 48 hours, aligning with the 95.5% market-implied odds for a named storm in the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14. Ensemble model consensus reinforces this outlook, though minor realistic risks such as an abrupt increase in shear or a shift in steering currents could still prevent development within the tight timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Khối lượng
$851Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.With the Eastern Pacific hurricane season at peak intensity in mid-August, persistently warm sea surface temperatures above 26°C and low vertical wind shear have created highly favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows active disturbances with elevated formation probabilities in the next 48 hours, aligning with the 95.5% market-implied odds for a named storm in the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14. Ensemble model consensus reinforces this outlook, though minor realistic risks such as an abrupt increase in shear or a shift in steering currents could still prevent development within the tight timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Khối lượng
$851Ngày kết thúc
Aug 15, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...With the Eastern Pacific hurricane season at peak intensity in mid-August, persistently warm sea surface temperatures above 26°C and low vertical wind shear have created highly favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows active disturbances with elevated formation probabilities in the next 48 hours, aligning with the 95.5% market-implied odds for a named storm in the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14. Ensemble model consensus reinforces this outlook, though minor realistic risks such as an abrupt increase in shear or a shift in steering currents could still prevent development within the tight timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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