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icon for 2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？

2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？

icon for 2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？

2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？

1st hottest 96.2%

2nd hottest 3.0%

3rd hottest 1.9%

4th or lower 1.3%

Polymarket
最新

1st hottest 96.2%

2nd hottest 3.0%

3rd hottest 1.9%

4th or lower 1.3%

Polymarket
最新

1st hottest

$510 交易量

96%

2nd hottest

$334 交易量

3%

3rd hottest

$152 交易量

2%

4th or lower

$151 交易量

1%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent record warmth in early August 2026, fueled by a strong El Niño event superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, has driven trader consensus toward these dates ranking as the hottest on record. Official NOAA analyses confirm July 2026 tied the prior global July record with a +1.18°C anomaly, while Northern Hemisphere daily temperatures peaked notably on August 1 amid widespread land and ocean heat extremes across Europe, Asia, and North America. Model consensus and observational data from agencies like NOAA and NASA show sustained high sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions favoring further daily records. Revisions in final blended datasets or narrower resolution criteria tied to specific baselines could modestly shift rankings, though current evidence makes such reversals unlikely.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$1,147
結束日期
2026-09-01
市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent record warmth in early August 2026, fueled by a strong El Niño event superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, has driven trader consensus toward these dates ranking as the hottest on record. Official NOAA analyses confirm July 2026 tied the prior global July record with a +1.18°C anomaly, while Northern Hemisphere daily temperatures peaked notably on August 1 amid widespread land and ocean heat extremes across Europe, Asia, and North America. Model consensus and observational data from agencies like NOAA and NASA show sustained high sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions favoring further daily records. Revisions in final blended datasets or narrower resolution criteria tied to specific baselines could modestly shift rankings, though current evidence makes such reversals unlikely.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$1,147
結束日期
2026-09-01
市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1st hottest" at 96%, followed by "2nd hottest" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" is "1st hottest" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2nd hottest" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年8月1日、2日、3日有史以來最火？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.