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選舉·西班牙

安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？

icon for 安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？
選舉·西班牙

安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？

是

48% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

48% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Trader consensus slightly favors no absolute majority for the Partido Popular (PP) in Andalusia's May 17 regional parliament election, with implied odds reflecting tight polling averages projecting PP leader Juanma Moreno at 53-58 of 109 seats—straddling the 55-seat threshold under proportional representation. Recent surveys from CIS, GAD3, Sociométrica, and NC Report through May 11 show PP consolidating at 43-45% amid PSOE's historic lows around 23-26% (27-31 seats) and Vox steady at 13-14% (13-15 seats), boosted by fragmented left-wing votes to Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. A May 5 TV debate edged PP upward, but undecideds, turnout in battleground provinces, and potential Vox gains on the right create uncertainty; late scandals or mobilization could push PP over 55 or leave it reliant on coalition partners.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
交易量
$3,750
結束日期
2026-05-17
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Trader consensus slightly favors no absolute majority for the Partido Popular (PP) in Andalusia's May 17 regional parliament election, with implied odds reflecting tight polling averages projecting PP leader Juanma Moreno at 53-58 of 109 seats—straddling the 55-seat threshold under proportional representation. Recent surveys from CIS, GAD3, Sociométrica, and NC Report through May 11 show PP consolidating at 43-45% amid PSOE's historic lows around 23-26% (27-31 seats) and Vox steady at 13-14% (13-15 seats), boosted by fragmented left-wing votes to Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. A May 5 TV debate edged PP upward, but undecideds, turnout in battleground provinces, and potential Vox gains on the right create uncertainty; late scandals or mobilization could push PP over 55 or leave it reliant on coalition partners.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
交易量
$3,750
結束日期
2026-05-17
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "安達盧西亞選舉：人民黨能否絕對多數？" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？" is "安達盧西亞選舉：人民黨能否絕對多數？" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "安達盧西亞選舉： PP絕對多數？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.