Argentina’s April monthly inflation print of 2.6 percent—the first deceleration in eleven months and only marginally above consensus—has anchored trader expectations for further cooling in the May reading. This outcome, paired with the year-over-year rate easing to 32.4 percent, supports the market-implied 65 percent probability on the 2.2–2.4 percent band as the central scenario, reflecting sustained momentum from monetary tightening and subdued core pressures under the current policy framework. The secondary ≤2.1 percent outcome priced at 25.5 percent captures the scope for additional moderation, while thinner odds on ranges above 2.5 percent indicate limited conviction in any near-term reacceleration. With the May figure scheduled for release around mid-June, participants are closely tracking incoming wage settlements and regulated price adjustments as potential swing factors that could refine the disinflation trajectory.