**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 2.2–2.4% range for Argentina’s October 2026 CPI at 100% implied probability**, reflecting the official INDEC release of exactly 2.2% (up from 1.9% in September) that aligned with the upper end of private forecasts. Economists at Equilibra, Libertad y Progreso, and the REM survey had clustered estimates between 1.8% and 2.1%, driven by seasonal price increases of 5.5% (notably vegetables and tourism-related items) and regulated price adjustments of 2.9% (including gas tariffs), while core inflation eased to 1.5%. This outcome fits the broader disinflation trajectory under current monetary and fiscal policies, with year-to-date accumulation at 26.3% and annual inflation at 33.1%. Realistic challenges to the bin would require significant data revisions or measurement discrepancies, though these remain low-probability events given the confirmed release.