**Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in the underlying rate of temperature rise, underpins the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability that the August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly will exceed 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Official monitoring shows 2026 monthly anomalies already ranking among the highest on record (e.g., June at +1.09°C relative to the 20th-century average), while sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have climbed above +2°C amid forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027. Studies adjusting for El Niño, volcanic, and solar influences confirm a statistically robust acceleration to roughly 0.35°C per decade since around 2015. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable observations and model consensus, though an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay or a major volcanic eruption could still narrow the final monthly value.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ）
2026年8月溫度升高（ ºC ）
>1.29ºC 96.4%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
低於1.10ºC <1%
$13,894 交易量
$13,894 交易量
2026-08-01
低於1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
96%
>1.29ºC 96.4%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
低於1.10ºC <1%
$13,894 交易量
$13,894 交易量
2026-08-01
低於1.10ºC
$877 交易量
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 交易量
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 交易量
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,077 交易量
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,549 交易量
3%
>1.29ºC
$6,270 交易量
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in the underlying rate of temperature rise, underpins the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability that the August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly will exceed 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Official monitoring shows 2026 monthly anomalies already ranking among the highest on record (e.g., June at +1.09°C relative to the 20th-century average), while sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have climbed above +2°C amid forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027. Studies adjusting for El Niño, volcanic, and solar influences confirm a statistically robust acceleration to roughly 0.35°C per decade since around 2015. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable observations and model consensus, though an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay or a major volcanic eruption could still narrow the final monthly value.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$13,894結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in the underlying rate of temperature rise, underpins the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability that the August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly will exceed 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Official monitoring shows 2026 monthly anomalies already ranking among the highest on record (e.g., June at +1.09°C relative to the 20th-century average), while sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have climbed above +2°C amid forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027. Studies adjusting for El Niño, volcanic, and solar influences confirm a statistically robust acceleration to roughly 0.35°C per decade since around 2015. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable observations and model consensus, though an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay or a major volcanic eruption could still narrow the final monthly value.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$13,894結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in the underlying rate of temperature rise, underpins the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability that the August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly will exceed 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Official monitoring shows 2026 monthly anomalies already ranking among the highest on record (e.g., June at +1.09°C relative to the 20th-century average), while sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have climbed above +2°C amid forecasts for a very strong event persisting into 2027. Studies adjusting for El Niño, volcanic, and solar influences confirm a statistically robust acceleration to roughly 0.35°C per decade since around 2015. Trader consensus reflects these verifiable observations and model consensus, though an unexpectedly rapid El Niño decay or a major volcanic eruption could still narrow the final monthly value.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions