Recent polling in Bahia’s October 4 Senate race shows Rui Costa (PT) leading with roughly 28% while Jaques Wagner (PT) holds a consistent edge for second place at 20–24%, ahead of João Roma (PL) and incumbent Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) who trail by smaller margins within sampling error. Voters select two names, and the two PT candidates benefit from strong statewide party organization, name recognition as former governors, and alignment with the federal administration. Wagner’s position as the sitting senator and government leader in the chamber has helped stabilize his support relative to the opposition challengers. The market’s high probability for Wagner in second place reflects these repeated survey results and the limited time remaining before ballots close.