Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 31%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 23%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 18%
其他 8.2%
$231,656 交易量
$231,656 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
8%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
18%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
41%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
2%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
6%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
23%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
5%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
1%
其他
8%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 31%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 23%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 18%
其他 8.2%
$231,656 交易量
$231,656 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
$4,601 交易量
4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
$2,627 交易量
8%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
$6,808 交易量
18%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
$2,923 交易量
41%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
$1,984 交易量
2%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
$2,309 交易量
6%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
$4,026 交易量
23%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
$200,633 交易量
5%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
$1,712 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
$1,774 交易量
1%
其他
$2,258 交易量
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$231,656結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$231,656結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions