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icon for Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
選舉·羅馬尼亞

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

icon for Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
選舉·羅馬尼亞

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PNL + UDMR 40.0%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 34%

PSD + AUR 29%

AUR 4.8%

Polymarket
最新

PNL + UDMR 40.0%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 34%

PSD + AUR 29%

AUR 4.8%

Polymarket
最新

PSD

$30 交易量

30%

PNL

$101 交易量

32%

USR

$785 交易量

1%

UDMR

$580 交易量

4%

AUR

$30 交易量

5%

PSD + PNL

$118 交易量

24%

PSD + USR

$456 交易量

3%

PSD + UDMR

$36 交易量

36%

PSD + AUR

$122 交易量

29%

PNL + USR

$51 交易量

3%

PNL + UDMR

$67 交易量

40%

PNL + AUR

$160 交易量

8%

USR + UDMR

$250 交易量

1%

USR + AUR

$640 交易量

1%

UDMR + AUR

$330 交易量

1%

PSD + PNL + USR

$30 交易量

4%

PSD + PNL + UDMR

$77 交易量

5%

PSD + PNL + AUR

$84 交易量

1%

PSD + USR + UDMR

$305 交易量

4%

PSD + USR + AUR

$297 交易量

1%

PSD + UDMR + AUR

$369 交易量

1%

PNL + USR + UDMR

$230 交易量

10%

PNL + USR + AUR

$298 交易量

1%

PNL + UDMR + AUR

$154 交易量

4%

USR + UDMR + AUR

$260 交易量

1%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR

$30 交易量

34%

PSD + PNL + USR + AUR

$319 交易量

4%

PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR

$336 交易量

1%

PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR

$361 交易量

1%

PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR

$319 交易量

1%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR

$356 交易量

1%

Other

$50 交易量

40%

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romanian coalition formation remains tightly contested, with PSD plus AUR and PNL plus UDMR each holding roughly 42% implied probability amid fragmented parliamentary arithmetic that leaves no bloc with an outright majority. Ongoing negotiations hinge on the pivotal role of smaller parties such as UDMR and the willingness of larger groups to bridge ideological divides on fiscal policy, EU alignment, and governance reforms. Recent party statements and preliminary talks have produced no decisive breakthroughs, sustaining balanced trader assessments across multiple viable combinations. Scheduled parliamentary votes or public commitments from key leaders in the coming weeks could shift probabilities by clarifying which alliances can secure the necessary support for government formation.

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.

A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.

If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$7,629
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romanian coalition formation remains tightly contested, with PSD plus AUR and PNL plus UDMR each holding roughly 42% implied probability amid fragmented parliamentary arithmetic that leaves no bloc with an outright majority. Ongoing negotiations hinge on the pivotal role of smaller parties such as UDMR and the willingness of larger groups to bridge ideological divides on fiscal policy, EU alignment, and governance reforms. Recent party statements and preliminary talks have produced no decisive breakthroughs, sustaining balanced trader assessments across multiple viable combinations. Scheduled parliamentary votes or public commitments from key leaders in the coming weeks could shift probabilities by clarifying which alliances can secure the necessary support for government formation.

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.

A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.

If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$7,629
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "PNL + UDMR" at 40%, followed by "Other" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?" is "PNL + UDMR" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Other" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.