Romania’s post-May 2026 government formation remains deadlocked after the no-confidence collapse of Ilie Bolojan’s pro-EU caretaker administration, leaving President Nicușor Dan to mediate among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR. PSD’s April withdrawal and subsequent cooperation with AUR on the successful motion fractured the prior four-party arrangement, while fiscal pressures and parliamentary arithmetic have blocked repeated prime-ministerial nominees. Traders assign the highest implied probability to PSD+PNL+UDMR because it aligns with PSD’s reported outreach to UDMR and national-minority MPs for a workable majority near 240 seats, yet the near-even odds on PSD+PNL+USR reflect persistent uncertainty over whether PNL and USR will formally rejoin or merely tolerate a minority cabinet. Summer recess, failed confidence votes, and parties’ reluctance to include AUR or accept deep concessions have kept every combination below 30 percent, preserving a fragmented field until September negotiations clarify whether a stable pro-European majority or narrower PSD-led arrangement can secure investiture.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PSD + PNL + UDMR 26.0%
PSD 10%
PNL + USR 9.0%
Other 6.4%
$23,982 交易量
$23,982 交易量
2026-05-31
PSD + PNL + UDMR
26%
PSD
10%
PNL + USR
9%
Other
6%
PSD + UDMR
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR
5%
PNL + USR + UDMR
5%
PSD + AUR
4%
PNL
4%
USR + UDMR
4%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
3%
UDMR
2%
PSD + PNL
2%
PSD + USR
2%
PNL + UDMR
2%
UDMR + AUR
2%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
2%
AUR
2%
USR
1%
PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
23%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 26.0%
PSD 10%
PNL + USR 9.0%
Other 6.4%
$23,982 交易量
$23,982 交易量
2026-05-31
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$1,680 交易量
26%
PSD
$329 交易量
10%
PNL + USR
$309 交易量
9%
Other
$3,747 交易量
6%
PSD + UDMR
$3,192 交易量
6%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$512 交易量
5%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$448 交易量
5%
PSD + AUR
$255 交易量
4%
PNL
$302 交易量
4%
USR + UDMR
$524 交易量
4%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$458 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$469 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$429 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$128 交易量
4%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$538 交易量
3%
UDMR
$2,094 交易量
2%
PSD + PNL
$175 交易量
2%
PSD + USR
$538 交易量
2%
PNL + UDMR
$377 交易量
2%
UDMR + AUR
$676 交易量
2%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$508 交易量
2%
AUR
$695 交易量
2%
USR
$1,730 交易量
1%
PNL + AUR
$472 交易量
1%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$408 交易量
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$381 交易量
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$379 交易量
1%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$620 交易量
1%
PNL + USR + AUR
$361 交易量
1%
USR + AUR
$706 交易量
1%
PSD + USR + AUR
$360 交易量
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$182 交易量
23%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania’s post-May 2026 government formation remains deadlocked after the no-confidence collapse of Ilie Bolojan’s pro-EU caretaker administration, leaving President Nicușor Dan to mediate among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR. PSD’s April withdrawal and subsequent cooperation with AUR on the successful motion fractured the prior four-party arrangement, while fiscal pressures and parliamentary arithmetic have blocked repeated prime-ministerial nominees. Traders assign the highest implied probability to PSD+PNL+UDMR because it aligns with PSD’s reported outreach to UDMR and national-minority MPs for a workable majority near 240 seats, yet the near-even odds on PSD+PNL+USR reflect persistent uncertainty over whether PNL and USR will formally rejoin or merely tolerate a minority cabinet. Summer recess, failed confidence votes, and parties’ reluctance to include AUR or accept deep concessions have kept every combination below 30 percent, preserving a fragmented field until September negotiations clarify whether a stable pro-European majority or narrower PSD-led arrangement can secure investiture.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
市場開放時間： May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
交易量
$23,982結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania’s post-May 2026 government formation remains deadlocked after the no-confidence collapse of Ilie Bolojan’s pro-EU caretaker administration, leaving President Nicușor Dan to mediate among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR. PSD’s April withdrawal and subsequent cooperation with AUR on the successful motion fractured the prior four-party arrangement, while fiscal pressures and parliamentary arithmetic have blocked repeated prime-ministerial nominees. Traders assign the highest implied probability to PSD+PNL+UDMR because it aligns with PSD’s reported outreach to UDMR and national-minority MPs for a workable majority near 240 seats, yet the near-even odds on PSD+PNL+USR reflect persistent uncertainty over whether PNL and USR will formally rejoin or merely tolerate a minority cabinet. Summer recess, failed confidence votes, and parties’ reluctance to include AUR or accept deep concessions have kept every combination below 30 percent, preserving a fragmented field until September negotiations clarify whether a stable pro-European majority or narrower PSD-led arrangement can secure investiture.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$23,982結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Romania’s post-May 2026 government formation remains deadlocked after the no-confidence collapse of Ilie Bolojan’s pro-EU caretaker administration, leaving President Nicușor Dan to mediate among PSD, PNL, USR, and UDMR. PSD’s April withdrawal and subsequent cooperation with AUR on the successful motion fractured the prior four-party arrangement, while fiscal pressures and parliamentary arithmetic have blocked repeated prime-ministerial nominees. Traders assign the highest implied probability to PSD+PNL+UDMR because it aligns with PSD’s reported outreach to UDMR and national-minority MPs for a workable majority near 240 seats, yet the near-even odds on PSD+PNL+USR reflect persistent uncertainty over whether PNL and USR will formally rejoin or merely tolerate a minority cabinet. Summer recess, failed confidence votes, and parties’ reluctance to include AUR or accept deep concessions have kept every combination below 30 percent, preserving a fragmented field until September negotiations clarify whether a stable pro-European majority or narrower PSD-led arrangement can secure investiture.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions