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世界·全球選舉

巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際

icon for 巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際
世界·全球選舉

巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際

盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 32%

盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 19%

弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 19%

盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15% 7.2%

Polymarket

$231,706 交易量

盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 32%

盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 19%

弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 19%

盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15% 7.2%

Polymarket

$231,706 交易量

icon for 魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+

魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+

$4,601 交易量

4%

icon for 盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%

盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%

$2,627 交易量

7%

icon for 盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%

盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%

$6,857 交易量

19%

icon for 盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%

盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%

$2,923 交易量

32%

icon for 弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+

弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+

$1,984 交易量

5%

icon for 弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%

弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%

$2,309 交易量

7%

icon for 弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%

弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%

$4,026 交易量

19%

icon for 雷南·桑托斯勝利

雷南·桑托斯勝利

$200,633 交易量

5%

icon for 塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利

塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利

$1,712 交易量

<1%

icon for 拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選

拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選

$1,774 交易量

<1%

icon for 其他

其他

$2,258 交易量

10%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show Brazil's October 2026 presidential contest locked in a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each receiving around 45 percent in simulated runoffs and Lula holding only a modest first-round edge amid vote fragmentation. This dynamic favors narrow victory margins in the October 4 first round, as conservative support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate while Lula draws from traditional left-leaning and centrist blocs. Key differentiators include Lula's incumbency advantages and policy record versus Flávio Bolsonaro's ability to unify right-wing voters previously split among governors and other challengers. Upcoming economic data releases, candidate debates, and any further scrutiny of party financing could shift turnout or undecided voters enough to widen or narrow the eventual first-place margin.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$231,706
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show Brazil's October 2026 presidential contest locked in a statistical dead heat, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each receiving around 45 percent in simulated runoffs and Lula holding only a modest first-round edge amid vote fragmentation. This dynamic favors narrow victory margins in the October 4 first round, as conservative support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate while Lula draws from traditional left-leaning and centrist blocs. Key differentiators include Lula's incumbency advantages and policy record versus Flávio Bolsonaro's ability to unify right-wing voters previously split among governors and other challengers. Upcoming economic data releases, candidate debates, and any further scrutiny of party financing could shift turnout or undecided voters enough to widen or narrow the eventual first-place margin.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$231,706
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%" at 32%, followed by "盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際" has generated $231.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際" is "盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "巴西總統大選第一輪：勝利邊際" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.