President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current constitutional term extends through the scheduled 2028 presidential election, with no snap elections or early resignation signals emerging in 2025 or early 2026 to alter that timeline. His Justice and Development Party maintains parliamentary control and institutional levers, including recent cabinet adjustments and judicial actions against opposition figures such as Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, which have limited immediate challenges to his leadership. Traders price the “No” outcome at 89.5 percent because verifiable developments continue to show Erdoğan exercising authority over foreign policy, economic measures, and security matters without any confirmed process that would force his departure before December 31, 2026. Only an unanticipated health event, sudden coalition fracture, or constitutional maneuver could still shift the implied probability.