President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan maintains firm institutional control through the AKP and aligned state bodies, with recent court actions further weakening the main opposition CHP ahead of the scheduled 2028 presidential vote. Public statements confirm his intent to serve through the end of his current term, and no verified parliamentary, judicial, or health developments point to removal before December 2026. Traders assign only a 5% probability to an early exit, reflecting the absence of snap-election triggers, constitutional crises, or sudden leadership vacancies in the near term. Scenarios that could still shift this outlook include acute health events or unforeseen coalition fractures, though none have materialized in recent months.