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政治·全球選舉

高威-西部補選獲勝者？

icon for 高威-西部補選獲勝者？
政治·全球選舉

高威-西部補選獲勝者？

諾埃爾·托馬斯 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.5%

麥克·卡伯德 9.6%

Polymarket

$45,729 交易量

諾埃爾·托馬斯 44%

Seán Kyne 32.8%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.5%

麥克·卡伯德 9.6%

Polymarket

$45,729 交易量

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 交易量

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,514 交易量

33%

奈爾·墨菲

$1,833 交易量

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,646 交易量

11%

奧拉·紐金特

$1,641 交易量

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$3,887 交易量

7%

丹曼·魯克

$1,612 交易量

1%

諾埃爾·托馬斯

$5,031 交易量

44%

托馬斯·韋爾比

$1,697 交易量

<1%

麥克·卡伯德

$2,113 交易量

10%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 交易量

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May to replace Catherine Connolly, elected president in October 2025, shows trader consensus centering on Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne as the primary contenders. Recent polling from early May indicates a narrow first-preference lead for Kyne over Thomas, with Labour's Helen Ogbu placing third amid a fragmented left-wing vote. Thomas's positioning stems from his established local profile as a former councillor with strong Connemara backing and prior independent gains, while Kyne emphasizes his Senate and former Dáil experience alongside government-party resources. The market's modest edge for Thomas over Kyne aligns with historical by-election patterns favoring independents on transfers in multi-candidate races focused on local issues such as cost of living and housing. Other listed candidates trail due to narrower party or regional support.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$45,729
結束日期
2027-03-31
市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May to replace Catherine Connolly, elected president in October 2025, shows trader consensus centering on Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas and Fine Gael's Seán Kyne as the primary contenders. Recent polling from early May indicates a narrow first-preference lead for Kyne over Thomas, with Labour's Helen Ogbu placing third amid a fragmented left-wing vote. Thomas's positioning stems from his established local profile as a former councillor with strong Connemara backing and prior independent gains, while Kyne emphasizes his Senate and former Dáil experience alongside government-party resources. The market's modest edge for Thomas over Kyne aligns with historical by-election patterns favoring independents on transfers in multi-candidate races focused on local issues such as cost of living and housing. Other listed candidates trail due to narrower party or regional support.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
交易量
$45,729
結束日期
2027-03-31
市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"高威-西部補選獲勝者？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "諾埃爾·托馬斯" at 44%, followed by "Seán Kyne" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "高威-西部補選獲勝者？" has generated $45.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "高威-西部補選獲勝者？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "高威-西部補選獲勝者？" is "諾埃爾·托馬斯" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Seán Kyne" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "高威-西部補選獲勝者？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.