**Close market-implied odds between 31°C (46%) and 32°C (44.5%) reflect genuine uncertainty in pinpointing Ankara’s exact maximum temperature on August 11, driven by small differences across ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS.** Recent runs show consensus around 30–32°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical for mid-August in central Anatolia, where daytime heating peaks in the afternoon. Minor variations arise from model resolution of local topography, urban heat-island effects around the city, and subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing or insolation timing. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, while the tight spread on adjacent outcomes (30°C at 6%) underscores how a 1°C shift in observed peak can hinge on the precise evolution of these conditions in the final model updates before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月11日安卡拉的最高溫度？
8月11日安卡拉的最高溫度？
31°C 48%
32°C 43%
30°C 6%
33°C 5%
最新
$10,998 交易量
最新
$10,998 交易量
2026-08-11
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
48%
32°C
43%
33°C
5%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C或更高
<1%
31°C 48%
32°C 43%
30°C 6%
33°C 5%
最新
$10,998 交易量
最新
$10,998 交易量
2026-08-11
26°C或以下
$462 交易量
<1%
27°C
$684 交易量
<1%
28°C
$746 交易量
<1%
29°C
$644 交易量
1%
30°C
$986 交易量
6%
31°C
$1,951 交易量
48%
32°C
$1,787 交易量
43%
33°C
$1,743 交易量
5%
34°C
$1,040 交易量
1%
35°C
$443 交易量
<1%
36°C或更高
$520 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Close market-implied odds between 31°C (46%) and 32°C (44.5%) reflect genuine uncertainty in pinpointing Ankara’s exact maximum temperature on August 11, driven by small differences across ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS.** Recent runs show consensus around 30–32°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical for mid-August in central Anatolia, where daytime heating peaks in the afternoon. Minor variations arise from model resolution of local topography, urban heat-island effects around the city, and subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing or insolation timing. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, while the tight spread on adjacent outcomes (30°C at 6%) underscores how a 1°C shift in observed peak can hinge on the precise evolution of these conditions in the final model updates before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$10,998結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Close market-implied odds between 31°C (46%) and 32°C (44.5%) reflect genuine uncertainty in pinpointing Ankara’s exact maximum temperature on August 11, driven by small differences across ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS.** Recent runs show consensus around 30–32°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical for mid-August in central Anatolia, where daytime heating peaks in the afternoon. Minor variations arise from model resolution of local topography, urban heat-island effects around the city, and subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing or insolation timing. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, while the tight spread on adjacent outcomes (30°C at 6%) underscores how a 1°C shift in observed peak can hinge on the precise evolution of these conditions in the final model updates before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,998結束日期
2026-08-11市場開放時間
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET**Close market-implied odds between 31°C (46%) and 32°C (44.5%) reflect genuine uncertainty in pinpointing Ankara’s exact maximum temperature on August 11, driven by small differences across ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS.** Recent runs show consensus around 30–32°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds typical for mid-August in central Anatolia, where daytime heating peaks in the afternoon. Minor variations arise from model resolution of local topography, urban heat-island effects around the city, and subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing or insolation timing. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, while the tight spread on adjacent outcomes (30°C at 6%) underscores how a 1°C shift in observed peak can hinge on the precise evolution of these conditions in the final model updates before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions