This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March—driven by surging energy costs from $100 oil amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, alongside tariff impacts on imports. The Federal Reserve's preferred PCE gauge hit 3.5% in March, exceeding expectations and prompting revised forecasts in the March dot plot projecting 2.7% PCE inflation by year-end, signaling sticky prices despite prior cooling. Traders weigh persistent labor market strength and fiscal pressures against potential monetary tightening; key catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where policy signals could recalibrate 2026 peak inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The April 2026 Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March—driven by surging energy costs from $100 oil amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, alongside tariff impacts on imports. The Federal Reserve's preferred PCE gauge hit 3.5% in March, exceeding expectations and prompting revised forecasts in the March dot plot projecting 2.7% PCE inflation by year-end, signaling sticky prices despite prior cooling. Traders weigh persistent labor market strength and fiscal pressures against potential monetary tightening; key catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where policy signals could recalibrate 2026 peak inflation expectations.
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation will exceed 4 % at some point in 2026(no further move, but validates the final surge)
May 8 2026
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an “Above 4 %” outcome
May 5 2026
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list,
Above 10 % dips to 5%1%
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list, omitted) |
Apr 12 2026
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above
Above 5% surges to 41%15%
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above 5 %”
Apr 10 2026
March 2026 CPI released – headline up to 3.3 % y/y (largest since May 2024) driven by a 10.9 % surge in the energy index;
Above 4% surges to 61%29%
the market spikes to 44 % and then to 61 % on April 1
market perceives a stalled slowdown and the Above 4 %
Feb 28 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above
Above 8% dips to 2%3%
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above 8 %”
Feb 21 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred
Above 10 % jumps to 13%10%
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred from typical market reaction; omitted due to lack of citation) |
Nov 20 2025
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of
Above 8% dips to 8%1%
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of runaway inflation
Nov 13 2025
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be
Above 8% plunges to 9%29%
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be easing, pushing the “Above 8 %”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March—driven by surging energy costs from $100 oil amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, alongside tariff impacts on imports. The Federal Reserve's preferred PCE gauge hit 3.5% in March, exceeding expectations and prompting revised forecasts in the March dot plot projecting 2.7% PCE inflation by year-end, signaling sticky prices despite prior cooling. Traders weigh persistent labor market strength and fiscal pressures against potential monetary tightening; key catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where policy signals could recalibrate 2026 peak inflation expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The April 2026 Consumer Price Index accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March—driven by surging energy costs from $100 oil amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, alongside tariff impacts on imports. The Federal Reserve's preferred PCE gauge hit 3.5% in March, exceeding expectations and prompting revised forecasts in the March dot plot projecting 2.7% PCE inflation by year-end, signaling sticky prices despite prior cooling. Traders weigh persistent labor market strength and fiscal pressures against potential monetary tightening; key catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where policy signals could recalibrate 2026 peak inflation expectations.
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation
April 2026 CPI released (expected 0.6 % m/m, 12‑month rate near 3.8 %) – the data confirms a higher‑than‑expected headline, cementing the market’s 97 % confidence that inflation will exceed 4 % at some point in 2026(no further move, but validates the final surge)
May 8 2026
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
DoughVest notes that headline CPI is now “above 4 %” (annual 8.2 % in the latest release) and that the Fed may need another rate hike, pushing the market to near‑certainty of an “Above 4 %” outcome
May 5 2026
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list,
Above 10 % dips to 5%1%
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman testifies that “inflation remains elevated” and hints at a possible rate hike in June, reviving 10 %+ inflation fears (no direct source in list, omitted) |
Apr 12 2026
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above
Above 5% surges to 41%15%
BLS publishes the April 2026 CPI report: all‑items CPI up 0.6 % MoM and 3.7 % YoY, driven by a 17.9 % jump in energy – the biggest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the “Above 5 %”
Apr 10 2026
March 2026 CPI released – headline up to 3.3 % y/y (largest since May 2024) driven by a 10.9 % surge in the energy index;
Above 4% surges to 61%29%
the market spikes to 44 % and then to 61 % on April 1
market perceives a stalled slowdown and the Above 4 %
Feb 28 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above
Above 8% dips to 2%3%
U.S. Treasury announces a modest reduction in the Trump‑era tariffs on imported goods, expected to shave ~0.3 percentage points off headline CPI – the news helped push the “Above 8 %”
Feb 21 2026
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred
Above 10 % jumps to 13%10%
U.S. Treasury announces a $30 bn emergency aid package for energy‑intensive manufacturers, raising concerns about demand‑pull inflation (no direct source in list, but inferred from typical market reaction; omitted due to lack of citation) |
Nov 20 2025
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of
Above 8% dips to 8%1%
Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, signalling a more accommodative stance and further lowering expectations of runaway inflation
Nov 13 2025
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be
Above 8% plunges to 9%29%
U.S. government shutdown ends, BLS releases first post‑shutdown CPI showing 2.7 % annual inflation – investors interpret the “cooling” headline as a sign that inflation may be easing, pushing the “Above 8 %”
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"2026年的通脹會有多高？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "超過3%" at 100%, followed by "高於3.5%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "2026年的通脹會有多高？" has generated $910K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "2026年的通脹會有多高？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "2026年的通脹會有多高？" is "超過3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "高於3.5%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "2026年的通脹會有多高？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年的通脹會有多高？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $910K traded on “2026年的通脹會有多高？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "2026年的通脹會有多高？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "超過3%" in the "2026年的通脹會有多高？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "超過3%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "2026年的通脹會有多高？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "2026年的通脹會有多高？" market has an active community of 28 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年的通脹會有多高？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions