Global seismicity records from the USGS establish an average rate of roughly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week worldwide, forming the core driver behind the market’s strong preference for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. A confirmed 6.7 quake off Japan’s northeast coast on May 15 has already met the resolution threshold, while the absence of aftershock sequences, subduction-zone unrest in the Pacific Ring of Fire, or clustered activity in high-frequency regions has kept probabilities for two or more events low. Background tectonic conditions and standard strike-slip or thrust mechanisms align with historical weekly patterns, with no revised forecasts or new USGS alerts indicating elevated risk through the resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 86%
2 10%
0 <1%
3 <1%
$55,553 交易量
$55,553 交易量
2026-05-17
0
<1%
1
85%
2
10%
3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 86%
2 10%
0 <1%
3 <1%
$55,553 交易量
$55,553 交易量
2026-05-17
0
$33,692 交易量
<1%
1
$5,636 交易量
85%
2
$3,783 交易量
10%
3
$5,846 交易量
<1%
4
$3,557 交易量
<1%
5
$1,570 交易量
<1%
>5
$1,633 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity records from the USGS establish an average rate of roughly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week worldwide, forming the core driver behind the market’s strong preference for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. A confirmed 6.7 quake off Japan’s northeast coast on May 15 has already met the resolution threshold, while the absence of aftershock sequences, subduction-zone unrest in the Pacific Ring of Fire, or clustered activity in high-frequency regions has kept probabilities for two or more events low. Background tectonic conditions and standard strike-slip or thrust mechanisms align with historical weekly patterns, with no revised forecasts or new USGS alerts indicating elevated risk through the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
交易量
$55,553結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity records from the USGS establish an average rate of roughly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week worldwide, forming the core driver behind the market’s strong preference for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. A confirmed 6.7 quake off Japan’s northeast coast on May 15 has already met the resolution threshold, while the absence of aftershock sequences, subduction-zone unrest in the Pacific Ring of Fire, or clustered activity in high-frequency regions has kept probabilities for two or more events low. Background tectonic conditions and standard strike-slip or thrust mechanisms align with historical weekly patterns, with no revised forecasts or new USGS alerts indicating elevated risk through the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$55,553結束日期
2026-05-17市場開放時間
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity records from the USGS establish an average rate of roughly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week worldwide, forming the core driver behind the market’s strong preference for exactly one event during the May 11–17 window. A confirmed 6.7 quake off Japan’s northeast coast on May 15 has already met the resolution threshold, while the absence of aftershock sequences, subduction-zone unrest in the Pacific Ring of Fire, or clustered activity in high-frequency regions has kept probabilities for two or more events low. Background tectonic conditions and standard strike-slip or thrust mechanisms align with historical weekly patterns, with no revised forecasts or new USGS alerts indicating elevated risk through the resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions