Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict and surging energy prices have driven the market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.3 percent. April CPI data showed headline inflation reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with core readings also firming amid a stable labor market that added more jobs than expected and held unemployment at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing. The Fed’s recent communications emphasize data dependence and caution on easing, with the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases serving as key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.6%
$26,960,186 交易量
$26,960,186 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
70%
1（25個基點）
16%
2（50個基點）
7%
3次（75個基點）
3%
4（100 個基點）
1%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
<1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
1%
0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.6%
$26,960,186 交易量
$26,960,186 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$4,189,626 交易量
70%
1（25個基點）
$1,245,242 交易量
16%
2（50個基點）
$1,204,668 交易量
7%
3次（75個基點）
$1,114,221 交易量
3%
4（100 個基點）
$1,197,753 交易量
1%
5次（125個基點）
$1,419,217 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,496,750 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,326,954 交易量
<1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,737,376 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,457,050 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$3,126,177 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,276,965 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,168,576 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict and surging energy prices have driven the market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.3 percent. April CPI data showed headline inflation reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with core readings also firming amid a stable labor market that added more jobs than expected and held unemployment at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing. The Fed’s recent communications emphasize data dependence and caution on easing, with the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases serving as key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,960,186結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict and surging energy prices have driven the market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.3 percent. April CPI data showed headline inflation reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with core readings also firming amid a stable labor market that added more jobs than expected and held unemployment at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing. The Fed’s recent communications emphasize data dependence and caution on easing, with the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases serving as key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,960,186結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict and surging energy prices have driven the market-implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.3 percent. April CPI data showed headline inflation reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with core readings also firming amid a stable labor market that added more jobs than expected and held unemployment at 4.3 percent. Brokerage forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs have shifted toward holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent through year-end, consistent with CME FedWatch pricing. The Fed’s recent communications emphasize data dependence and caution on easing, with the June FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases serving as key catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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