Trader sentiment strongly favors zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has limited scope for monetary policy easing. Recent CPI releases through April 2026 showed core inflation holding near 3%, reinforcing the FOMC’s data-dependent stance and reducing expectations for any cuts this year. This pricing reflects the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing vigilance on price stability over growth concerns, with Treasury yields and forward curves consistent with a higher-for-longer funds rate. Key upcoming events, including the June FOMC meeting and May employment data, could shift probabilities if inflation readings moderate or labor conditions weaken unexpectedly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.7%
$26,989,371 交易量
$26,989,371 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
70%
1（25個基點）
16%
2（50個基點）
7%
3次（75個基點）
3%
4（100 個基點）
1%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
<1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
<1%
0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.7%
$26,989,371 交易量
$26,989,371 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$4,190,751 交易量
70%
1（25個基點）
$1,245,694 交易量
16%
2（50個基點）
$1,204,738 交易量
7%
3次（75個基點）
$1,114,226 交易量
3%
4（100 個基點）
$1,199,546 交易量
1%
5次（125個基點）
$1,421,012 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,499,529 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,329,140 交易量
<1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,741,581 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,457,800 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$3,128,122 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,277,465 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,180,009 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment strongly favors zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has limited scope for monetary policy easing. Recent CPI releases through April 2026 showed core inflation holding near 3%, reinforcing the FOMC’s data-dependent stance and reducing expectations for any cuts this year. This pricing reflects the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing vigilance on price stability over growth concerns, with Treasury yields and forward curves consistent with a higher-for-longer funds rate. Key upcoming events, including the June FOMC meeting and May employment data, could shift probabilities if inflation readings moderate or labor conditions weaken unexpectedly.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,989,371結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment strongly favors zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has limited scope for monetary policy easing. Recent CPI releases through April 2026 showed core inflation holding near 3%, reinforcing the FOMC’s data-dependent stance and reducing expectations for any cuts this year. This pricing reflects the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing vigilance on price stability over growth concerns, with Treasury yields and forward curves consistent with a higher-for-longer funds rate. Key upcoming events, including the June FOMC meeting and May employment data, could shift probabilities if inflation readings moderate or labor conditions weaken unexpectedly.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,989,371結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment strongly favors zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability, driven by persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has limited scope for monetary policy easing. Recent CPI releases through April 2026 showed core inflation holding near 3%, reinforcing the FOMC’s data-dependent stance and reducing expectations for any cuts this year. This pricing reflects the Fed’s recent communications emphasizing vigilance on price stability over growth concerns, with Treasury yields and forward curves consistent with a higher-for-longer funds rate. Key upcoming events, including the June FOMC meeting and May employment data, could shift probabilities if inflation readings moderate or labor conditions weaken unexpectedly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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