Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end. Market-implied odds now assign a 70.3% probability to zero cuts (0 basis points), consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5% for a hold through December and recent downward revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing easing into 2027. A resilient labor market and cautious FOMC communications have reinforced this stance, with policymakers emphasizing data dependence over earlier easing projections. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC meetings remain key swing factors that could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 70.3%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.6%
$27,051,811 交易量
$27,051,811 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
70%
1（25個基點）
16%
2（50個基點）
7%
3次（75個基點）
3%
4（100 個基點）
1%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
<1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
<1%
0（0個基點） 70.3%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.6%
$27,051,811 交易量
$27,051,811 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$4,191,445 交易量
70%
1（25個基點）
$1,247,969 交易量
16%
2（50個基點）
$1,207,698 交易量
7%
3次（75個基點）
$1,115,243 交易量
3%
4（100 個基點）
$1,204,773 交易量
1%
5次（125個基點）
$1,421,895 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,505,186 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,364,133 交易量
<1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,745,338 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,458,735 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$3,129,411 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,279,661 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,181,182 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end. Market-implied odds now assign a 70.3% probability to zero cuts (0 basis points), consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5% for a hold through December and recent downward revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing easing into 2027. A resilient labor market and cautious FOMC communications have reinforced this stance, with policymakers emphasizing data dependence over earlier easing projections. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC meetings remain key swing factors that could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$27,051,811結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end. Market-implied odds now assign a 70.3% probability to zero cuts (0 basis points), consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5% for a hold through December and recent downward revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing easing into 2027. A resilient labor market and cautious FOMC communications have reinforced this stance, with policymakers emphasizing data dependence over earlier easing projections. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC meetings remain key swing factors that could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$27,051,811結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, has anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end. Market-implied odds now assign a 70.3% probability to zero cuts (0 basis points), consistent with CME FedWatch pricing near 71.5% for a hold through December and recent downward revisions from BofA and Goldman Sachs pushing easing into 2027. A resilient labor market and cautious FOMC communications have reinforced this stance, with policymakers emphasizing data dependence over earlier easing projections. Upcoming CPI releases and FOMC meetings remain key swing factors that could shift the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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