Elevated inflation pressures, driven by surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, have anchored trader expectations for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability. The latest March CPI release showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by a 10.9% energy index increase, while resilient labor data—with unemployment holding near 4.3% and solid payrolls—has reinforced the FOMC’s cautious monetary policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Major institutions including BofA and Goldman Sachs have revised forecasts to no easing this year, citing persistent above-target inflation risks and stronger-than-expected growth. Upcoming May CPI and employment reports, alongside potential new Fed leadership, represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the path of future adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.8%
$26,985,366 交易量
$26,985,366 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
70%
1（25個基點）
16%
2（50個基點）
7%
3次（75個基點）
3%
4（100 個基點）
1%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
<1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
<1%
0（0個基點） 70.2%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.8%
$26,985,366 交易量
$26,985,366 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$4,190,734 交易量
70%
1（25個基點）
$1,245,676 交易量
16%
2（50個基點）
$1,204,738 交易量
7%
3次（75個基點）
$1,114,226 交易量
3%
4（100 個基點）
$1,199,137 交易量
1%
5次（125個基點）
$1,420,918 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,498,929 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,328,393 交易量
<1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,741,062 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,457,402 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$3,127,715 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,277,378 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,179,847 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures, driven by surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, have anchored trader expectations for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability. The latest March CPI release showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by a 10.9% energy index increase, while resilient labor data—with unemployment holding near 4.3% and solid payrolls—has reinforced the FOMC’s cautious monetary policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Major institutions including BofA and Goldman Sachs have revised forecasts to no easing this year, citing persistent above-target inflation risks and stronger-than-expected growth. Upcoming May CPI and employment reports, alongside potential new Fed leadership, represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the path of future adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,985,366結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures, driven by surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, have anchored trader expectations for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability. The latest March CPI release showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by a 10.9% energy index increase, while resilient labor data—with unemployment holding near 4.3% and solid payrolls—has reinforced the FOMC’s cautious monetary policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Major institutions including BofA and Goldman Sachs have revised forecasts to no easing this year, citing persistent above-target inflation risks and stronger-than-expected growth. Upcoming May CPI and employment reports, alongside potential new Fed leadership, represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the path of future adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,985,366結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures, driven by surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, have anchored trader expectations for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 70.3% market-implied probability. The latest March CPI release showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by a 10.9% energy index increase, while resilient labor data—with unemployment holding near 4.3% and solid payrolls—has reinforced the FOMC’s cautious monetary policy stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Major institutions including BofA and Goldman Sachs have revised forecasts to no easing this year, citing persistent above-target inflation risks and stronger-than-expected growth. Upcoming May CPI and employment reports, alongside potential new Fed leadership, represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the path of future adjustments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions