Traders are pricing a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by persistent inflation readings above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept the central bank on hold. First-quarter 2026 GDP growth and core PCE data released in recent weeks reinforced expectations that policy rates will remain elevated through year-end, shifting the market-implied rate path away from earlier easing forecasts. This consensus reflects real-capital positioning in prediction markets, where participants weigh strong consumer spending against any potential softening in jobless claims. The next CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key catalysts that could adjust these odds if incoming data alter the inflation or growth outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0（0個基點） 70.5%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.7%
$26,914,204 交易量
$26,914,204 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
71%
1（25個基點）
16%
2（50個基點）
7%
3次（75個基點）
3%
4（100 個基點）
1%
5次（125個基點）
1%
6次（150個基點）
1%
7次（175個基點）
<1%
8次（200個基點）
<1%
9次（225個基點）
<1%
10（250個基點）
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
1%
0（0個基點） 70.5%
1（25個基點） 16%
2（50個基點） 7%
3次（75個基點） 2.7%
$26,914,204 交易量
$26,914,204 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0個基點）
$4,188,433 交易量
71%
1（25個基點）
$1,244,767 交易量
16%
2（50個基點）
$1,204,248 交易量
7%
3次（75個基點）
$1,113,801 交易量
3%
4（100 個基點）
$1,195,734 交易量
1%
5次（125個基點）
$1,417,370 交易量
1%
6次（150個基點）
$2,488,597 交易量
1%
7次（175個基點）
$1,323,334 交易量
<1%
8次（200個基點）
$1,731,432 交易量
<1%
9次（225個基點）
$2,454,262 交易量
<1%
10（250個基點）
$3,122,366 交易量
<1%
11 次（275 個基點）
$3,272,911 交易量
<1%
12次以上（超過300個基點）
$2,157,220 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders are pricing a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by persistent inflation readings above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept the central bank on hold. First-quarter 2026 GDP growth and core PCE data released in recent weeks reinforced expectations that policy rates will remain elevated through year-end, shifting the market-implied rate path away from earlier easing forecasts. This consensus reflects real-capital positioning in prediction markets, where participants weigh strong consumer spending against any potential softening in jobless claims. The next CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key catalysts that could adjust these odds if incoming data alter the inflation or growth outlook.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,914,204結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders are pricing a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by persistent inflation readings above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept the central bank on hold. First-quarter 2026 GDP growth and core PCE data released in recent weeks reinforced expectations that policy rates will remain elevated through year-end, shifting the market-implied rate path away from earlier easing forecasts. This consensus reflects real-capital positioning in prediction markets, where participants weigh strong consumer spending against any potential softening in jobless claims. The next CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key catalysts that could adjust these odds if incoming data alter the inflation or growth outlook.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,914,204結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing a 70.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by persistent inflation readings above the 2% target and a resilient labor market that has kept the central bank on hold. First-quarter 2026 GDP growth and core PCE data released in recent weeks reinforced expectations that policy rates will remain elevated through year-end, shifting the market-implied rate path away from earlier easing forecasts. This consensus reflects real-capital positioning in prediction markets, where participants weigh strong consumer spending against any potential softening in jobless claims. The next CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key catalysts that could adjust these odds if incoming data alter the inflation or growth outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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