Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7 71%
11 21.8%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,769 交易量
$73,769 交易量
2026-08-31
少於5人
1%
5
4%
6
10%
7
71%
8
17%
9
4%
10
2%
11
22%
12+
1%
7 71%
11 21.8%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,769 交易量
$73,769 交易量
2026-08-31
少於5人
$20,070 交易量
1%
5
$15,535 交易量
4%
6
$26,450 交易量
10%
7
$2,145 交易量
71%
8
$1,599 交易量
17%
9
$1,328 交易量
4%
10
$1,303 交易量
2%
11
$923 交易量
22%
12+
$4,416 交易量
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$73,769結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$73,769結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions