Recent polling for the June 2, 2026, Los Angeles mayoral primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading with 19–35 percent support, followed by challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman in the low-to-mid teens, while 26–50 percent of likely voters remain undecided amid a field of more than a dozen candidates. This fragmentation, consistent with historical patterns in nonpartisan Los Angeles contests, makes it highly unlikely any candidate will secure the outright majority needed to avoid a November runoff. Trader consensus reflected in the 94 percent probability on “No” aligns with these vote-share distributions and the absence of late consolidation behind a single frontrunner.