Iran maintains enrichment of uranium as a core national interest and red line in ongoing nuclear talks with the United States and other parties, with no verified diplomatic signals or agreements indicating willingness to halt the activity by the September 30 deadline. Post-2025 termination of the JCPOA and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, Tehran has shifted operations to deeper underground sites while retaining substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched material under IAEA scrutiny. Recent negotiations, including the June 2026 memorandum framework, have centered on verification, stockpile disposition, and sanctions relief but stalled over Iran's insistence on domestic enrichment rights versus U.S. demands for tighter limits or relocation. The compressed timeline and absence of breakthroughs in the past month reinforce trader consensus that the threshold for agreement remains unmet, though an unexpected concession amid renewed sanctions pressure or IAEA-mediated progress could still alter the outlook before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$62,705 交易量
$62,705 交易量
2026-09-30
是
3% 機率
$62,705 交易量
$62,705 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains enrichment of uranium as a core national interest and red line in ongoing nuclear talks with the United States and other parties, with no verified diplomatic signals or agreements indicating willingness to halt the activity by the September 30 deadline. Post-2025 termination of the JCPOA and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, Tehran has shifted operations to deeper underground sites while retaining substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched material under IAEA scrutiny. Recent negotiations, including the June 2026 memorandum framework, have centered on verification, stockpile disposition, and sanctions relief but stalled over Iran's insistence on domestic enrichment rights versus U.S. demands for tighter limits or relocation. The compressed timeline and absence of breakthroughs in the past month reinforce trader consensus that the threshold for agreement remains unmet, though an unexpected concession amid renewed sanctions pressure or IAEA-mediated progress could still alter the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
交易量
$62,705結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains enrichment of uranium as a core national interest and red line in ongoing nuclear talks with the United States and other parties, with no verified diplomatic signals or agreements indicating willingness to halt the activity by the September 30 deadline. Post-2025 termination of the JCPOA and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, Tehran has shifted operations to deeper underground sites while retaining substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched material under IAEA scrutiny. Recent negotiations, including the June 2026 memorandum framework, have centered on verification, stockpile disposition, and sanctions relief but stalled over Iran's insistence on domestic enrichment rights versus U.S. demands for tighter limits or relocation. The compressed timeline and absence of breakthroughs in the past month reinforce trader consensus that the threshold for agreement remains unmet, though an unexpected concession amid renewed sanctions pressure or IAEA-mediated progress could still alter the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$62,705結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains enrichment of uranium as a core national interest and red line in ongoing nuclear talks with the United States and other parties, with no verified diplomatic signals or agreements indicating willingness to halt the activity by the September 30 deadline. Post-2025 termination of the JCPOA and U.S.-Israeli strikes on facilities including Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, Tehran has shifted operations to deeper underground sites while retaining substantial stockpiles of 60% enriched material under IAEA scrutiny. Recent negotiations, including the June 2026 memorandum framework, have centered on verification, stockpile disposition, and sanctions relief but stalled over Iran's insistence on domestic enrichment rights versus U.S. demands for tighter limits or relocation. The compressed timeline and absence of breakthroughs in the past month reinforce trader consensus that the threshold for agreement remains unmet, though an unexpected concession amid renewed sanctions pressure or IAEA-mediated progress could still alter the outlook before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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