Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the fragile post-conflict environment with the United States and Israel have driven recent trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile. More significantly, reports from July 7 indicate Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile or projectile strikes on at least three commercial vessels, including a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, a Qatari LNG tanker, and a Saudi crude tanker, resulting in fires, damage, and elevated maritime risk alerts. These actions occurred despite a June 17 memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalation and reopening the waterway, prompting U.S. strikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities in response. Ongoing U.S. naval blockade measures and Iranian threats to disrupt transit continue to shape assessments of further incidents through the summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
最新
2026-07-15
July 15
68%
July 31
85%
August 31
91%
$6,445 交易量
July 15
$974 交易量
68%
July 31
$2,580 交易量
85%
August 31
$2,890 交易量
91%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the fragile post-conflict environment with the United States and Israel have driven recent trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile. More significantly, reports from July 7 indicate Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile or projectile strikes on at least three commercial vessels, including a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, a Qatari LNG tanker, and a Saudi crude tanker, resulting in fires, damage, and elevated maritime risk alerts. These actions occurred despite a June 17 memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalation and reopening the waterway, prompting U.S. strikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities in response. Ongoing U.S. naval blockade measures and Iranian threats to disrupt transit continue to shape assessments of further incidents through the summer.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
交易量
$6,445結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the fragile post-conflict environment with the United States and Israel have driven recent trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile. More significantly, reports from July 7 indicate Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile or projectile strikes on at least three commercial vessels, including a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, a Qatari LNG tanker, and a Saudi crude tanker, resulting in fires, damage, and elevated maritime risk alerts. These actions occurred despite a June 17 memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalation and reopening the waterway, prompting U.S. strikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities in response. Ongoing U.S. naval blockade measures and Iranian threats to disrupt transit continue to shape assessments of further incidents through the summer.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$6,445結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the fragile post-conflict environment with the United States and Israel have driven recent trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile. More significantly, reports from July 7 indicate Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile or projectile strikes on at least three commercial vessels, including a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, a Qatari LNG tanker, and a Saudi crude tanker, resulting in fires, damage, and elevated maritime risk alerts. These actions occurred despite a June 17 memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalation and reopening the waterway, prompting U.S. strikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities in response. Ongoing U.S. naval blockade measures and Iranian threats to disrupt transit continue to shape assessments of further incidents through the summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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