Ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, including large-scale strikes and retaliatory missile and drone activity since late February 2026, continue to shape aviation risk assessments and trader views on potential new airspace closures. EASA advisories urging caution across the Tel Aviv FIR extend through June 24, 2026, while Israeli officials have issued periodic restricted-activity measures and updates tied to security evaluations. Recent statements from the Transport Ministry indicate the airspace has remained open for scheduled commercial operations in early June, yet regional volatility and warnings from multiple FIRs sustain market focus on near-term escalation risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could influence timing probabilities reflected in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$15,344,597 交易量
2026-06-15
June 14
8%
June 15
13%
6月30日
28%
$15,344,597 交易量
June 14
$415,991 交易量
8%
June 15
$5,103,572 交易量
13%
6月30日
$2,164,440 交易量
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, including large-scale strikes and retaliatory missile and drone activity since late February 2026, continue to shape aviation risk assessments and trader views on potential new airspace closures. EASA advisories urging caution across the Tel Aviv FIR extend through June 24, 2026, while Israeli officials have issued periodic restricted-activity measures and updates tied to security evaluations. Recent statements from the Transport Ministry indicate the airspace has remained open for scheduled commercial operations in early June, yet regional volatility and warnings from multiple FIRs sustain market focus on near-term escalation risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could influence timing probabilities reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$15,344,597結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, including large-scale strikes and retaliatory missile and drone activity since late February 2026, continue to shape aviation risk assessments and trader views on potential new airspace closures. EASA advisories urging caution across the Tel Aviv FIR extend through June 24, 2026, while Israeli officials have issued periodic restricted-activity measures and updates tied to security evaluations. Recent statements from the Transport Ministry indicate the airspace has remained open for scheduled commercial operations in early June, yet regional volatility and warnings from multiple FIRs sustain market focus on near-term escalation risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could influence timing probabilities reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$15,344,597結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, including large-scale strikes and retaliatory missile and drone activity since late February 2026, continue to shape aviation risk assessments and trader views on potential new airspace closures. EASA advisories urging caution across the Tel Aviv FIR extend through June 24, 2026, while Israeli officials have issued periodic restricted-activity measures and updates tied to security evaluations. Recent statements from the Transport Ministry indicate the airspace has remained open for scheduled commercial operations in early June, yet regional volatility and warnings from multiple FIRs sustain market focus on near-term escalation risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could influence timing probabilities reflected in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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