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icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
經濟艙·聯邦利率

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
經濟艙·聯邦利率

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

2% 機率
Polymarket
最新
2% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$5,637
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell's handling of Federal Reserve headquarters renovations on April 24, 2026, without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Traders price in the absence of any ongoing federal probes, congressional referrals, or inspector general findings that could trigger indictments, reinforced by Powell's transition to a board role after his chair term ended in May. With no new prosecutorial activity reported since the probe's referral to internal review, real-money consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes against senior central bankers absent extraordinary evidence. Tail risks remain narrow, limited to unforeseen developments such as revived allegations or unrelated matters surfacing before year-end 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$5,637
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.