**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources place Chengdu's overnight and early-morning minimum near 18 °C under cloudy, humid conditions with light winds.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the Sichuan basin, where persistent cloud cover and high moisture suppress radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops below seasonal norms. Official model consensus and real-time observations show temperatures stabilizing around this level through dawn, supporting the market's overwhelming 99.5 % implied probability for an 18 °C low. Minor deviations remain possible from localized urban heat effects, precise station siting, or small forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside a narrow band around the leading resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月16日成都最低溫度？
9月16日成都最低溫度？
18°C 99.5%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$1,159 交易量
$1,159 交易量
2026-09-16
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
是
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或更高
否
18°C 99.5%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$1,159 交易量
$1,159 交易量
2026-09-16
13°C或以下
$16 交易量
否
14°C
$16 交易量
否
15°C
$94 交易量
否
16°C
$84 交易量
否
17°C
$97 交易量
否
18°C
$365 交易量
是
19°C
$250 交易量
否
20°C
$183 交易量
否
21°C
$16 交易量
否
22°C
$22 交易量
否
23°C或更高
$16 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources place Chengdu's overnight and early-morning minimum near 18 °C under cloudy, humid conditions with light winds.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the Sichuan basin, where persistent cloud cover and high moisture suppress radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops below seasonal norms. Official model consensus and real-time observations show temperatures stabilizing around this level through dawn, supporting the market's overwhelming 99.5 % implied probability for an 18 °C low. Minor deviations remain possible from localized urban heat effects, precise station siting, or small forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside a narrow band around the leading resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,159結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources place Chengdu's overnight and early-morning minimum near 18 °C under cloudy, humid conditions with light winds.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the Sichuan basin, where persistent cloud cover and high moisture suppress radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops below seasonal norms. Official model consensus and real-time observations show temperatures stabilizing around this level through dawn, supporting the market's overwhelming 99.5 % implied probability for an 18 °C low. Minor deviations remain possible from localized urban heat effects, precise station siting, or small forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside a narrow band around the leading resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,159結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources place Chengdu's overnight and early-morning minimum near 18 °C under cloudy, humid conditions with light winds.** This aligns with late-summer climatology for the Sichuan basin, where persistent cloud cover and high moisture suppress radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops below seasonal norms. Official model consensus and real-time observations show temperatures stabilizing around this level through dawn, supporting the market's overwhelming 99.5 % implied probability for an 18 °C low. Minor deviations remain possible from localized urban heat effects, precise station siting, or small forecast adjustments in final model runs, yet the tight clustering of guidance leaves little room for outcomes outside a narrow band around the leading resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions