JMA forecasts indicate a minimum of 24°C for Tokyo on August 23, aligning with historical August baselines of 23–25°C and supporting the market's emphasis on 24–25°C outcomes. Persistent summer conditions under an expanded Pacific High promote clear to cloudy skies with limited nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect—driven by concrete and asphalt retaining daytime heat—typically prevents drops below 23°C. Elevated humidity and weak winds further stabilize overnight lows near seasonal norms. Recent model consensus shows tight clustering around these values with no major frontal systems or typhoon influences expected to alter the pattern before resolution.