**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24°C on August 3, 2026 (60.5% implied probability), with 23°C as the next most likely outcome (21.0%).** These probabilities reflect trader consensus on typical early-August conditions in the Japanese capital, where overnight lows are shaped by the seasonal strength of the Pacific High, which suppresses cloud cover and allows moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs often exceed 32–35°C. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 indicate above-normal temperatures across Honshu, consistent with an earlier end to the rainy season and persistent subtropical high pressure. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows average August minimums near 24–25°C (76°F), with urban heat-island effects and high humidity (often >75%) limiting nocturnal cooling. Short-range forecast variability over the next 48 hours will hinge on any passing frontal systems or changes in wind patterns that could nudge the minimum a degree lower or higher. Updated model runs from agencies such as the JMA or NOAA will provide the key data points traders monitor for shifts in these tight probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月3日東京最低溫度？
8月3日東京最低溫度？
24°C 72%
23°C 19%
25°C 19%
22°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
19°C或以下
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
8%
22°C
10%
23°C
19%
24°C
49%
25°C
19%
26°C
8%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C或以上
<1%
24°C 72%
23°C 19%
25°C 19%
22°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
19°C或以下
$42 交易量
<1%
20°C
$42 交易量
1%
21°C
$17 交易量
8%
22°C
$17 交易量
10%
23°C
$122 交易量
19%
24°C
$27 交易量
49%
25°C
$105 交易量
19%
26°C
$18 交易量
8%
27°C
$50 交易量
2%
28°C
$32 交易量
<1%
29°C或以上
$10 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24°C on August 3, 2026 (60.5% implied probability), with 23°C as the next most likely outcome (21.0%).** These probabilities reflect trader consensus on typical early-August conditions in the Japanese capital, where overnight lows are shaped by the seasonal strength of the Pacific High, which suppresses cloud cover and allows moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs often exceed 32–35°C.
Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 indicate above-normal temperatures across Honshu, consistent with an earlier end to the rainy season and persistent subtropical high pressure. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows average August minimums near 24–25°C (76°F), with urban heat-island effects and high humidity (often >75%) limiting nocturnal cooling. Short-range forecast variability over the next 48 hours will hinge on any passing frontal systems or changes in wind patterns that could nudge the minimum a degree lower or higher. Updated model runs from agencies such as the JMA or NOAA will provide the key data points traders monitor for shifts in these tight probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$483結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24°C on August 3, 2026 (60.5% implied probability), with 23°C as the next most likely outcome (21.0%).** These probabilities reflect trader consensus on typical early-August conditions in the Japanese capital, where overnight lows are shaped by the seasonal strength of the Pacific High, which suppresses cloud cover and allows moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs often exceed 32–35°C.
Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 indicate above-normal temperatures across Honshu, consistent with an earlier end to the rainy season and persistent subtropical high pressure. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows average August minimums near 24–25°C (76°F), with urban heat-island effects and high humidity (often >75%) limiting nocturnal cooling. Short-range forecast variability over the next 48 hours will hinge on any passing frontal systems or changes in wind patterns that could nudge the minimum a degree lower or higher. Updated model runs from agencies such as the JMA or NOAA will provide the key data points traders monitor for shifts in these tight probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$483結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Market-implied odds favor a Tokyo minimum temperature of 24°C on August 3, 2026 (60.5% implied probability), with 23°C as the next most likely outcome (21.0%).** These probabilities reflect trader consensus on typical early-August conditions in the Japanese capital, where overnight lows are shaped by the seasonal strength of the Pacific High, which suppresses cloud cover and allows moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs often exceed 32–35°C. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks for summer 2026 indicate above-normal temperatures across Honshu, consistent with an earlier end to the rainy season and persistent subtropical high pressure. Historical climatology for Tokyo shows average August minimums near 24–25°C (76°F), with urban heat-island effects and high humidity (often >75%) limiting nocturnal cooling. Short-range forecast variability over the next 48 hours will hinge on any passing frontal systems or changes in wind patterns that could nudge the minimum a degree lower or higher. Updated model runs from agencies such as the JMA or NOAA will provide the key data points traders monitor for shifts in these tight probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions