Traders assign a 93.7% probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, reflecting broad confidence in continued U.S. economic expansion driven by steady consumer spending, solid corporate earnings, and a labor market that has cooled without collapsing. Recent first-quarter GDP data showed moderate positive growth, while inflation metrics remain anchored near the Federal Reserve’s target, supporting expectations for gradual rate cuts that would sustain business investment. Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing surveys and retail sales point to resilience rather than contraction. Still, a sudden escalation in trade tensions, an energy supply shock, or a sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could tip growth negative, though current market pricing views these risks as low-probability tail events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$26,508 交易量
$26,508 交易量
2027-01-29
是
$26,508 交易量
$26,508 交易量
2027-01-29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Traders assign a 93.7% probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, reflecting broad confidence in continued U.S. economic expansion driven by steady consumer spending, solid corporate earnings, and a labor market that has cooled without collapsing. Recent first-quarter GDP data showed moderate positive growth, while inflation metrics remain anchored near the Federal Reserve’s target, supporting expectations for gradual rate cuts that would sustain business investment. Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing surveys and retail sales point to resilience rather than contraction. Still, a sudden escalation in trade tensions, an energy supply shock, or a sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could tip growth negative, though current market pricing views these risks as low-probability tail events.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$26,508結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Traders assign a 93.7% probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, reflecting broad confidence in continued U.S. economic expansion driven by steady consumer spending, solid corporate earnings, and a labor market that has cooled without collapsing. Recent first-quarter GDP data showed moderate positive growth, while inflation metrics remain anchored near the Federal Reserve’s target, supporting expectations for gradual rate cuts that would sustain business investment. Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing surveys and retail sales point to resilience rather than contraction. Still, a sudden escalation in trade tensions, an energy supply shock, or a sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could tip growth negative, though current market pricing views these risks as low-probability tail events.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$26,508結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.7% probability against negative GDP growth in 2026, reflecting broad confidence in continued U.S. economic expansion driven by steady consumer spending, solid corporate earnings, and a labor market that has cooled without collapsing. Recent first-quarter GDP data showed moderate positive growth, while inflation metrics remain anchored near the Federal Reserve’s target, supporting expectations for gradual rate cuts that would sustain business investment. Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing surveys and retail sales point to resilience rather than contraction. Still, a sudden escalation in trade tensions, an energy supply shock, or a sharper-than-expected fiscal tightening could tip growth negative, though current market pricing views these risks as low-probability tail events.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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