Market-implied odds of 96.5% against negative GDP growth in 2026 reflect strong trader consensus anchored in official forecasts projecting real GDP expansion of 2.1-2.3% for the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized growth in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while institutions including the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, and IMF cite resilient investment-led activity, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. These factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and moderating consumer spending. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharp geopolitical escalation, abrupt fiscal tightening, or a sudden labor-market deterioration that triggers broad contraction, though current leading indicators show limited signs of such shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$32,761 交易量
$32,761 交易量
2027-01-28
是
4% 機率
$32,761 交易量
$32,761 交易量
2027-01-28
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Market-implied odds of 96.5% against negative GDP growth in 2026 reflect strong trader consensus anchored in official forecasts projecting real GDP expansion of 2.1-2.3% for the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized growth in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while institutions including the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, and IMF cite resilient investment-led activity, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. These factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and moderating consumer spending. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharp geopolitical escalation, abrupt fiscal tightening, or a sudden labor-market deterioration that triggers broad contraction, though current leading indicators show limited signs of such shifts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$32,761結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Market-implied odds of 96.5% against negative GDP growth in 2026 reflect strong trader consensus anchored in official forecasts projecting real GDP expansion of 2.1-2.3% for the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized growth in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while institutions including the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, and IMF cite resilient investment-led activity, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. These factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and moderating consumer spending. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharp geopolitical escalation, abrupt fiscal tightening, or a sudden labor-market deterioration that triggers broad contraction, though current leading indicators show limited signs of such shifts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$32,761結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Market-implied odds of 96.5% against negative GDP growth in 2026 reflect strong trader consensus anchored in official forecasts projecting real GDP expansion of 2.1-2.3% for the year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized growth in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while institutions including the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, and IMF cite resilient investment-led activity, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. These factors outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and moderating consumer spending. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sharp geopolitical escalation, abrupt fiscal tightening, or a sudden labor-market deterioration that triggers broad contraction, though current leading indicators show limited signs of such shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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