PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PL 77%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS） 9.7%
社會民主黨（PSD） 5.7%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 4.4%
$253,943 交易量
$253,943 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
77%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
10%
社會民主黨（PSD）
6%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
4%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
4%
工人黨（PT）
3%
PODEMOS
2%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
1%
新黨（NOVO）
1%
PSDB
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 77%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS） 9.7%
社會民主黨（PSD） 5.7%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB） 4.4%
$253,943 交易量
$253,943 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$242,655 交易量
77%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$1,075 交易量
10%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$1,046 交易量
6%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$1,007 交易量
4%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$958 交易量
4%
工人黨（PT）
$1,040 交易量
3%
PODEMOS
$1,156 交易量
2%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$1,071 交易量
1%
新黨（NOVO）
$1,134 交易量
1%
PSDB
$1,023 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$935 交易量
<1%
PDT
$843 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$253,943結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$253,943結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions