PL leads the trader consensus with an 80.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its extensive organizational structure and competitive candidate slate across numerous states. The party’s position stems from recent growth in congressional representation and alignment with right-leaning governors and local networks that have produced strong showings in prior cycles. Other parties, including PSD and UNIÃO, trail significantly as no comparable consolidation has emerged to challenge PL’s edge in the fragmented field. Upcoming developments such as candidate nominations and alliance formations before the October vote could still shift seat projections in key races.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於PL 79%
社會民主黨（PSD） 5.7%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 3.7%
工人黨（PT） 2.9%
$253,953 交易量
$253,953 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
79%
社會民主黨（PSD）
6%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
4%
工人黨（PT）
3%
PODEMOS
2%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
1%
新黨（NOVO）
1%
PSDB
<1%
進步黨（PP）
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 79%
社會民主黨（PSD） 5.7%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO） 3.7%
工人黨（PT） 2.9%
$253,953 交易量
$253,953 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$242,655 交易量
79%
社會民主黨（PSD）
$1,046 交易量
6%
聯盟黨（UNIÃO）
$958 交易量
4%
工人黨（PT）
$1,040 交易量
3%
PODEMOS
$1,156 交易量
2%
巴西民主運動黨（MDB）
$1,012 交易量
1%
巴西社會黨（PSB）
$1,071 交易量
1%
共和黨（REPUBLICANOS）
$1,080 交易量
1%
新黨（NOVO）
$1,134 交易量
1%
PSDB
$1,023 交易量
<1%
進步黨（PP）
$935 交易量
<1%
PDT
$843 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads the trader consensus with an 80.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its extensive organizational structure and competitive candidate slate across numerous states. The party’s position stems from recent growth in congressional representation and alignment with right-leaning governors and local networks that have produced strong showings in prior cycles. Other parties, including PSD and UNIÃO, trail significantly as no comparable consolidation has emerged to challenge PL’s edge in the fragmented field. Upcoming developments such as candidate nominations and alliance formations before the October vote could still shift seat projections in key races.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$253,953結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL leads the trader consensus with an 80.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its extensive organizational structure and competitive candidate slate across numerous states. The party’s position stems from recent growth in congressional representation and alignment with right-leaning governors and local networks that have produced strong showings in prior cycles. Other parties, including PSD and UNIÃO, trail significantly as no comparable consolidation has emerged to challenge PL’s edge in the fragmented field. Upcoming developments such as candidate nominations and alliance formations before the October vote could still shift seat projections in key races.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$253,953結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL leads the trader consensus with an 80.5% implied probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its extensive organizational structure and competitive candidate slate across numerous states. The party’s position stems from recent growth in congressional representation and alignment with right-leaning governors and local networks that have produced strong showings in prior cycles. Other parties, including PSD and UNIÃO, trail significantly as no comparable consolidation has emerged to challenge PL’s edge in the fragmented field. Upcoming developments such as candidate nominations and alliance formations before the October vote could still shift seat projections in key races.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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