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政治·Watson V. Republican National Committe

SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？

icon for SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？
政治·Watson V. Republican National Committe

SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？

是

71% 機率
Polymarket

$39,358 交易量

是

71% 機率
Polymarket

$39,358 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Supreme Court docket activity on challenges to state mail ballot deadlines has driven trader consensus toward a 72% implied probability that the justices will bar counting ballots received after election day. Lower court rulings in multiple states have upheld post-election receipt windows when ballots are postmarked on time, prompting petitions that frame these practices as inconsistent with federal election timelines. Historical precedent on similar voting procedure questions, including prior term decisions clarifying ballot acceptance rules, informs assessments of likely outcomes. Any upcoming petitions for review or signals from the current term could shift positioning ahead of the next federal election cycle, though the core legal questions remain subject to standard certiorari processes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$39,358
結束日期
2026-08-01
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent Supreme Court docket activity on challenges to state mail ballot deadlines has driven trader consensus toward a 72% implied probability that the justices will bar counting ballots received after election day. Lower court rulings in multiple states have upheld post-election receipt windows when ballots are postmarked on time, prompting petitions that frame these practices as inconsistent with federal election timelines. Historical precedent on similar voting procedure questions, including prior term decisions clarifying ballot acceptance rules, informs assessments of likely outcomes. Any upcoming petitions for review or signals from the current term could shift positioning ahead of the next federal election cycle, though the core legal questions remain subject to standard certiorari processes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$39,358
結束日期
2026-08-01
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國最高法院禁止選舉日後計算郵寄選票？" at 71%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？" has generated $39.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？" is "美國最高法院禁止選舉日後計算郵寄選票？" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SCOTUS酒吧在選舉日後計算郵寄選票？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.