The Supreme Court’s March oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee drove the current trader consensus. Conservative justices expressed strong skepticism toward state laws permitting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received days later, questioning whether such grace periods conflict with federal statutes fixing a single Election Day. With a decision expected by late June or early July ahead of the 2026 midterms, the Court appears positioned to invalidate practices in roughly fourteen states and the District of Columbia. Traders view this timeline and the Court’s composition as increasing the probability of a nationwide bar on counting ballots after Election Day, though implementation questions and any last-minute shifts in the opinion could still alter the outcome before final resolution.