Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early April 2026, signaling a potential June listing targeting $1.5–2 trillion valuations amid surging Starlink subscriber growth to over 10 million and Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including high-cycle Raptor engine reflights. Recent secondary share sales valued SpaceX at $800 billion in late 2025, but operational dominance—90%+ of global orbital payload—and direct-to-cell spectrum deals have propelled sentiment higher, outpacing rivals like Blue Origin. Challenges include SEC review delays, macroeconomic volatility, or Starship test failures that could push timelines past 2028 or compress multiples.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1 兆+ 94%
2028 年前不會 IPO 1.7%
7,000億–8,000億 1.2%
8000億–9000億 1.2%
$3,400,552 交易量
$3,400,552 交易量
2027-12-31
低於5000億
<1%
5,000億–6,000億
<1%
6000 億–7000 億
<1%
7,000億–8,000億
1%
8000億–9000億
1%
9,000億–1兆
1%
1 兆+
94%
2028 年前不會 IPO
2%
1 兆+ 94%
2028 年前不會 IPO 1.7%
7,000億–8,000億 1.2%
8000億–9000億 1.2%
$3,400,552 交易量
$3,400,552 交易量
2027-12-31
低於5000億
$374,455 交易量
<1%
5,000億–6,000億
$319,865 交易量
<1%
6000 億–7000 億
$287,072 交易量
<1%
7,000億–8,000億
$331,388 交易量
1%
8000億–9000億
$481,942 交易量
1%
9,000億–1兆
$418,610 交易量
1%
1 兆+
$598,619 交易量
94%
2028 年前不會 IPO
$588,601 交易量
2%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early April 2026, signaling a potential June listing targeting $1.5–2 trillion valuations amid surging Starlink subscriber growth to over 10 million and Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including high-cycle Raptor engine reflights. Recent secondary share sales valued SpaceX at $800 billion in late 2025, but operational dominance—90%+ of global orbital payload—and direct-to-cell spectrum deals have propelled sentiment higher, outpacing rivals like Blue Origin. Challenges include SEC review delays, macroeconomic volatility, or Starship test failures that could push timelines past 2028 or compress multiples.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
交易量
$3,400,552結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early April 2026, signaling a potential June listing targeting $1.5–2 trillion valuations amid surging Starlink subscriber growth to over 10 million and Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including high-cycle Raptor engine reflights. Recent secondary share sales valued SpaceX at $800 billion in late 2025, but operational dominance—90%+ of global orbital payload—and direct-to-cell spectrum deals have propelled sentiment higher, outpacing rivals like Blue Origin. Challenges include SEC review delays, macroeconomic volatility, or Starship test failures that could push timelines past 2028 or compress multiples.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$3,400,552結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion at 93.5% implied probability, driven by the company's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC in early April 2026, signaling a potential June listing targeting $1.5–2 trillion valuations amid surging Starlink subscriber growth to over 10 million and Starship's rapid reusability milestones, including high-cycle Raptor engine reflights. Recent secondary share sales valued SpaceX at $800 billion in late 2025, but operational dominance—90%+ of global orbital payload—and direct-to-cell spectrum deals have propelled sentiment higher, outpacing rivals like Blue Origin. Challenges include SEC review delays, macroeconomic volatility, or Starship test failures that could push timelines past 2028 or compress multiples.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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